\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 080 Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) )
The company issued 21fy annual report, with revenue of 20.3 billion yuan, yoy + 8% (after retroactive adjustment, the same below); Net profit attributable to parent company: 3.37 billion, yoy + 65%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.57 billion, yoy + 43%. The corresponding 21q4 company revenue is 5.82 billion, yoy + 0%, QoQ + 10%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 730 million, yoy + 44%, qoq-9%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 380 million, yoy-3%, qoq-49%. 21q4 net profit attributable to parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to parent are 21% and 20% lower than the median of the previous performance forecast range respectively.
Steady growth of glass fiber, continued pressure on blade benefits and continued high growth of lithium film revenue
The glass fiber business grows steadily and is expected to be sustainable. The business 21h2 revenue of glass fiber yarn and products was 4.76 billion, yoy and HOH were + 24% and + 19% respectively; The sales volume of 21h2 glass fiber yarn and products was 580000 tons, HOH + 5 tons / + 9%, mainly due to the contribution of new production capacity (90000 tons of high-performance glass fiber of F09 line in manzhuang new area and 65000 tons of spinning yarn of zf06 line in Zoucheng were ignited on 21 / 09 and 21 / 12 respectively); The average price per ton in the same period was 8202 yuan, HOH + 667 yuan / + 8.8%; with
The net profit per ton for the period is 2541 yuan, hoh-138 yuan / – 5.1% (excluding the contribution of rhodium powder sale and so on). The price 21h2 rise of natural gas and other raw fuels has a certain drag, and 22fy is expected to return gradually. Taishan glass fiber 21h2 net profit of 1.48 billion, yoy and HOH are + 120% and + 4% respectively. It is judged that the high prosperity of glass fiber roving has good sustainability, with steady expansion of production capacity, increase of added value (such as wind power yarn, VIP vacuum insulation project, etc.), efficiency improvement and cost reduction (174 million cost reduction for 21fy full caliber), and the benefits of material glass fiber business can grow steadily.
Blade efficiency continues to be under pressure. The leaf business 21h2 revenue was 3.94 billion, yoy and HOH were – 31% and + 30% respectively. In the same period, the sales of blades were 6870mw, yoy and HOH were – 11% and + 51% respectively, and the average price per MW was hoh-90000 yuan/- 14% to 570000 yuan, net profit hoh-47000 yuan per MW / — 64% to 26000 yuan. The subsidiary Sinoma blade 21h2 net profit was 180 million, yoy and HOH were – 71% and – 41% respectively. Under the influence of the high base in the early stage, the sharp decline in the bidding price of wind turbine and the rise in the cost of raw materials, the benefit of the blade sector may still need to be improved or wait.
Lithium film revenue continued to increase. The revenue of diaphragm business 21h2 is 660 million, yoy and HOH are 88% and 40% respectively. The continuous expansion of production capacity drives the high growth of revenue (21h2 Hunan production base 17-20 and Tengzhou phase II 5-6 advanced production capacity are all released, and the customer structure is also optimized to a certain extent). The annual sales volume of lithium film a product was 680 million square meters, with an average price of 1.6 yuan, which was + 0.3 yuan compared with 20fy. The net profits of Sinoma lithium film (the main body after integration) 21fy and 21h2 are about 90 million and 40 million respectively, and the benefits of the sector are sustainable to a certain extent.
Continue to be optimistic about the transformation prospect of the company’s new material platform and maintain the “buy” rating
Three major businesses support the company’s transformation into a new material platform: 1) the final annual production capacity of glass fiber 21fy reached 1.2 million tons, with steady expansion and complete and competitive product portfolio; 2) The blade business has formed an annual production capacity of 10GW + wind power blades, started the pace of global layout, maintained the intensity of new product research and development (21fy launched a variety of large blade products such as si85.8/si84/si9x-100), and fully covered the blade needs of mainstream fan platforms of strategic customers; 3) The final production capacity of lithium film 21fy exceeds 1 billion square meters, and the production capacity under construction and preparation is about 2.64 billion square meters. It is expected that the second phase of 22fy Inner Mongolia will be completed and put into operation, with firm production expansion and cost optimization. Based on the more cautious profit expectation of wind power units, the forecast of 22 / 23 net profit attributable to the parent company was slightly lowered to 3.74/4.48 billion (the previous value was 3.98/4.88 billion), and the forecast of 24-year net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.51 billion, with 22-24 years yoy respectively + 11% / 20% / 23%, maintaining the company’s 20x 22-year target PE, reducing the target price to 44.60 yuan (the previous value was 47.42 yuan) and maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: glass fiber supply exceeds expectations; The installed capacity of wind power is less than expected; Lithium film customer development and cost reduction are lower than expected; And China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) asset integration landing uncertainty
