\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 660 Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) )
Events
The company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 23.6 billion yuan, yoy + 18.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.15 billion yuan, yoy + 21%. Of which, the revenue of 21q4 is 6.45 billion yuan, yoy + 5.22%; The net profit is 3.75-3.75 billion yuan.
Key investment points
21q4 revenue growth significantly outperformed the growth of global automobile sales
21q4's revenue is 6.45 billion yuan, yoy + 5.22%. The company is the global leader in automotive glass. According to marklines, 21q4's global automobile sales volume is 2001.2 million, yoy-14.2%. The company's revenue growth significantly outperforms the growth rate of global automobile sales. It is expected that ① the improvement of the penetration rate of HUD and ceiling glass will drive the company ASP;
② further increase the global market share.
Gross profit rate, expense rate and net profit rate change greatly. What do you think?
21q4 gross profit margin / expense rate changes greatly due to changes in accounting standards:
① items such as freight in administrative expenses and sales expenses are adjusted to the operating cost. It is suggested to sum up the cost, administrative expenses and sales expenses. In terms of gross profit rate, sales expense rate and administrative expense rate, 21q4 is 20.85%, with a year-on-year increase of - 5pct and a month-on-month increase of - 1.4pct, [mainly due to the increase in the price of pure alkali + the increase in the price of freight + the expansion of Sam loss]. About Sam: 20q4 lost about 4.18 million euros, 21q3 lost more than 8 million euros, 21q4 lost about 20.25 million euros, and the loss expanded.
② 21q4 "gross profit margin - sales expense rate - management expense rate" decreased by only 1.4pct month on month compared with Q3, but the net interest rate decreased by 6.2pct month on month compared with Q3, mainly due to exchange loss. The exchange loss in Q4 was more than 300 million, and the exchange loss in Q3 was about 30 million, affecting about 4 points.
Excluding non operating factors (exchange) and Sam, the profit of the main business of automobile and glass is still strong, showing the strong toughness of the leader.
The short-term pressure does not change the medium and long-term upward trend. We continue to be optimistic about the improvement of ASP under the acceleration of HUD + sky curtain penetration. At the same time, the aluminum trim business is expected to usher in a reversal
The panoramic sky curtain is an electric vehicle logo accessory. ASP is at least twice that of steam glass, and the competition pattern is better than that of traditional steam glass.
The penetration rate of HUD accelerated and doubled the ASP of front windshield.
The inflection point of aluminum trim business is about to open a large-scale cycle: Sam OEM orders are about to be put into production, which will turn losses into profits; The production of Fuqing plant in China began to climb gradually, and Changchun plant will also be put into operation in 2022 to contribute to the increment.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a global leader in automotive glass. Thanks to the accelerated penetration of HUD + sky curtain, the company's main business of automotive glass ASP has improved, and there is still some room for improvement in the company's global market share. At the same time, the aluminum trim business is about to reverse and will contribute to the increment. It is estimated that the company's 22-24-year revenue is 28.09/34.19/41.3 billion yuan, yoy is 19% / 22% / 21%, and the net profit attributable to the parent is 42 / 54 / 68 billion yuan. It is rated "buy" corresponding to PE 22 / 17 / 14.
Risk tips
Chip supply is less than expected, car sales are less than expected, and Sam integration is less than expected
