\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 058 Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) )
Core summary: rapid internal and external expansion
Domestic tire enterprises evade tariff barriers through international layout and increase the market share worldwide, which is the main logic of the performance growth of domestic tire enterprises in the past few years. Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) through the rapid capacity expansion of Southeast Asia base, the profits have been greatly increased. Under the background of the double reaction of the United States, Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) in Vietnam and Cambodia has further strengthened its advantages and is expected to accelerate its growth. At the same time, the company pays attention to research and development. The company's continuous investment in the field of engineering tires will usher in a harvest period. Liquid gold tires are expected to enhance the technical popularity of domestic tires and bring technological changes to the tire industry.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be RMB 1.3 billion, 2.2 billion and 3.1 billion respectively, corresponding to 23, 14 and 10 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The profitability of bases in Vietnam and Cambodia is expected to increase significantly
At present, Vietnam and Cambodia have certain tariff advantages over Thailand.
Vietnam's joint venture actr plans to have a design capacity of 2.4 million steel tires, accounting for 65% of the race rounds. By the end of 2020, it has reached a production capacity of 1.2 million tires. Vietnam's wholly-owned all steel plans a total of 2.6 million, with an expansion of 1 million in the next three phases. There are 13 million semi steel, 3 million expanded in phase III, and 16 million in the future. The off-road is now 50000 tons, expanded from 50000 tons to 100000 tons. Cambodia has planned 9 million semi steel, which has been successfully put into operation; The whole steel is planned to have 1.65 million, which is expected to be put into operation in 2023.
Continuous breakthrough of engineering tire
It is estimated that in 2022, Qingdao's off-road tires will increase from 40000 tons to 60000 tons, and Vietnam's from 50000 tons to 100000 tons.
"Liquid gold" is expected to contribute to the increment
Break the "devil's triangle" law, double the service life and save 16.56% oil, which is expected to form a breakthrough point. In June 2020, 108000 T / a high-performance rubber new material circular economy green integration project of chemical rubber refining phase I has been invested and constructed. In the future, the annual output of 300000 tons of chemical rubber compound can meet the production and application of 120 million semi steel tires.
Build a joint venture with dealers
Put forward the concept of building a community of shared future with partners and committed to creating a new pattern of integrated development of production and marketing. The company has jointly established joint ventures with dealers in some parts of the country.
Risk tip: "uncertainty of business development of liquid gold" (EVEC tire tread compound); The risk of project progress falling short of expectations, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy exceeding expectations, the risk of price fluctuation of main raw materials, the risk of international trade friction, the risk of environmental protection and safe production, the risk of overseas operation, the risk of new production rising short of expectations, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation, the risk of increased competition in the same industry, the risk of economic downturn, etc.
