\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 677 Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) )
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 73.08% year-on-year, maintaining the “buy” rating
The company released the annual report of 2021. The annual revenue was 24.613 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.69%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.852 billion yuan (falling behind the performance forecast, mainly due to the existence of about 35000 tons of products in transit at the end of 2021), a year-on-year increase of 73.08%, and the basic earnings per share was 2.77 yuan. At the same time, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.8 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders, and increase 4 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with capital reserve. We continue to be optimistic about the high growth attribute of the company in the future, maintain 20222023 and add a profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 2.862 billion yuan, 3.847 billion yuan and 4.727 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 4.19, 5.64 and 6.93 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 9.0, 6.7 and 5.4 times of PE in 20222024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
In 2021, R & D investment continued to increase, and the volume and price of aluminum sector, strip and foil products increased simultaneously
In 2021, the company further increased its R & D investment, with the annual R & D cost reaching 954 million yuan and the R & D cost rate reaching 3.87%, an increase of 0.71 PCT over the same period in 2020. At the same time, the company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, realizing a net operating cash inflow of 2.067 billion yuan in the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 136.23% over 2020. In terms of production and sales, the company achieved 1.15 million tons of aluminum sector, strip and foil sales in 2021 (including 954500 tons of aluminum sector and strip and 190900 tons of aluminum foil), a year-on-year increase of 17.54% over 2020. In terms of profit per ton, the gross profit per ton of aluminum strip and aluminum foil of the company in 2021 was 2531 yuan and 3075 yuan respectively, an increase of 871 yuan and 981 yuan respectively compared with the same period in 2020.
The short-term pick-up rhythm does not affect the annual sales target, and the performance of 2022q1 company is expected to usher in high growth
From January to February 2022, the sales volume of the company’s aluminum sector, strip and foil products fluctuated, which was mainly due to the slow pace of delivery due to the rapid rise of aluminum price. At present, China’s aluminum price is in a high and volatile situation, which has been relatively stable. At the same time, the pre holiday inventory of downstream customers has been gradually digested. Therefore, it is expected that the product delivery volume of subsequent companies will gradually return to the normal level, and the annual sales target is expected to be completed normally. At the same time, we are still optimistic about the high growth of the company’s performance in 2022q1, mainly due to: (1) the profit of in transit products at the end of 2021 is expected to be carried forward to 2022q1; (2) The sharp rise in 2022q1 aluminum price will contribute some inventory income to the company; (3) Under the background of the reversal of aluminum price difference at home and abroad and the increase of overseas processing fees compared with China, the profit of the company’s export business is expected to increase significantly.
Risk tips: the production capacity launch process is not as expected, the downstream demand has fallen sharply, and the epidemic situation in China has been repeated
