\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 10.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 3.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%.
The performance of Kinsey pharmaceutical industry has increased rapidly, and the growth hormone continues to increase in large quantities. In 2021, kinsay pharmaceutical achieved an operating revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. At the beginning of 2020, the epidemic led to the slowdown of growth hormone growth. With the elimination of the epidemic, growth hormone sales rebounded rapidly. At the same time, the company adjusted its marketing strategy. Growth hormone sales recovered rapidly in the second half of 2020. In 2021, growth hormone still maintained rapid growth. The company continues to promote sales reform and improve the sales scale of growth hormone in the grass-roots market. With the promotion of sales reform, the grass-roots market is expected to open new space for growth hormone. At the same time, the company increases the promotion in the adult field, and the income contribution is expected to be gradually reflected and become a new growth point.
Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) dragged down the performance, and the herpes zoster vaccine is worth looking forward to. In 2021, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) achieved an operating revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.9%. In 2020, the issuance of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) varicella vaccine batches increased rapidly, driving the achievement to achieve rapid growth. In 2020q1, it still maintained a rapid growth. In the second half of 2021, due to the increased vaccination of covid-19 vaccine, there was a certain squeeze on the company’s varicella and influenza vaccination, resulting in the decline of Baike’s revenue and profit year-on-year. It is expected to start to usher in growth in 2022. The new product nasal spray influenza vaccine is the first live attenuated nasal spray influenza vaccine in China. It is easy to be immunized on a large scale and has significant differentiation advantages. It is expected to become an effective supplement to the tetravalent influenza vaccine. It is expected that the nasal spray influenza vaccine will contribute significant performance increment to the company. Herpes zoster vaccine products under development are in the declaration stage. The herpes zoster vaccine market has a large space and a good competition pattern. It is expected to become a large variety in the future.
The real estate and Chinese patent medicine businesses grew steadily and are expected to continue to contribute to stable cash flow. In 2021, high-tech real estate achieved an operating revenue of 660 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.2%. Huakang pharmaceutical achieved an operating revenue of 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit of 40 million yuan, which was flat year-on-year. The real estate business declined due to the weakness of the real estate industry as a whole. The company’s proprietary Chinese medicine business maintained a stable operation and is expected to contribute to stable cash flow in the future.
Profit forecast and rating. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.87 billion yuan, 6.05 billion yuan and 7.3 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 12.04 yuan, 14.95 yuan and 18.04 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price valuation of 15 times, 12 times and 10 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk that the volume of growth hormone is less than expected; Risk that the progress of products under development is less than expected
