\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 176 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) )
The company issued 21fy annual report, with revenue of 19.7 billion, yoy + 69%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 6 billion, yoy + 150%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.2 billion, yoy + 165%. Corresponding to 21q4 company revenue of 5.9 billion, yoy + 55%, QoQ + 11%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 1.7 billion, yoy + 52%, QoQ + 1%; Deduct 1.2 billion net profit not attributable to parent company, yoy + 51%, qoq-16%. 21q4 net profit attributable to parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to parent are 18% and 14% lower than the median of the previous performance forecast range respectively.
The volume and price of 21fy rise together, the product structure is optimized, and the incentive fee has a great impact on the 21q4 profit margin
21fy sold 2.35 million tons of glass fiber yarn and products and 440 million meters of electronic cloth throughout the year; Yoy is 12.7% and 16.4% respectively (of which 21h2 sales are 1.25 million tons and 218 million meters respectively, HOH is + 13.5% and – 1.8% respectively). The overall situation of the whole year was that both volume and price rose. The revenue of 21q4 company increased by double digits month on month, which may be the main reason (according to Zhuo Chuang information, the 150000 ton short cut yarn tank kiln of Tongxiang intelligent line 4 was put into operation 21 / 10), and it is speculated that the product structure has also been optimized to a certain extent;, In terms of industry price, roving 21q4 increased slightly month on month, and the price of electronic cloth fell more.
The gross profit margin of 21fy company is 45.3%, yoy + 11.5pct respectively; Among them, 21q4 is 43.2%, qoq-2.2pct. It is speculated that the month on month pressure is due to the change of material cost such as natural gas. Since 21h2, the excess profit accrual scheme has been promoted, and the management expense ratio has increased greatly. The management expense ratio of 21q4 / 21q3 company is 680 / 340 million yuan respectively (vs 21q2 is 140 million yuan), and the management expense ratio is 11.5% / 6.4% (vs 21q2 is 3.1%). In addition, the sale of precious metal rhodium powder has contributed a lot to the benefit of 21h2 asset disposal. The asset disposal income of 21q4 / 21q3 company is 530 / 260 million respectively (vs 21q2 is 50 million yuan), accounting for 8.9% / 5.0% of revenue respectively (vs 21q2 is 1.2%), and the contribution of 22fy is expected to be reduced. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company and the net interest rate deducted from the non attributable to the parent company (note, excluding the income from asset disposal) of 21fy are yoy + 10.4pct and + 9.9pct to 31.1% and 30.6% respectively; 21q4 net interest rate attributable to the parent company and net interest rate deducted from non attributable to the parent company are 29.4% and 20.5% respectively, and QoQ is – 3.0 and – 6.7pct respectively.
Continue the previous view and remain optimistic about the sustainability of the high prosperity of the glass fiber industry
The glass fiber industry may gradually enter the stage of obvious weakening of cycle attributes, and the core lies in the change of supply side. When the new supply has a significant impact or becomes a thing of the past, it is mainly reflected in: 1) the base of industrial production capacity has increased, and the impact kinetic energy of new supply has weakened; 2) Under the background of dual control of energy consumption, the implementation of new glass fiber production capacity increases policy disturbance variables; 3) The glass fiber association is also guiding the orderly expansion of production capacity, and its thinking has changed compared with that during the 13th Five Year Plan period. On the other hand, the demand is elastic in the short term (22 years’ expectation of exports, automobiles, etc.), and we are optimistic about its growth sustainability (increased penetration of wind power yarn and new energy vehicles, etc.). The industry has high business continuity or good continuity.
Continue to be optimistic about the strengthening of Jushi’s competitive advantage and growth sustainability, and maintain the “buy” rating
As a global leader in roving and electronic cloth, Jushi has an advantage in cost. Firmly promote cost reduction and efficiency increase, capacity expansion and strong execution. The optimization of product structure and the improvement of added value drive the company’s cycle fluctuation to weaken and consolidate its competitiveness and growth. The excess profit sharing scheme is of great significance to strengthen the implementation effect of the company’s strategy. Based on the more conservative price assumption of electronic cloth and the expectation of asset disposal income, we lowered the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company on 22 / 23 to 5.8/68 billion (the previous value was 6.5/7.5 billion), increased the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company for 24 years to 7.9 billion, maintained the company’s 20x 22 year target PE by – 3% / + 16% / + 16% YoY respectively from 22 to 24 years, lowered the company’s target price to 29.14 yuan (the previous value was 32.39 yuan), and continued to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the incremental supply of glass fiber exceeded expectations; Demand growth is lower than expected; Electronic cloth competition exceeded expectations
