\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 866 Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 763 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.54%. Among them, single Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 1.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 195 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -0.95%.
The main business development has increased steadily, and the production capacity has been released in stages. Q1-Q4 revenue in 21 years was + 0.3% / 13.9% / 5.6% / 5.1% year-on-year, stabilizing month on month. In this year, the revenue side was under pressure under multiple factors, including the high sales base of 20q1; The epidemic situation is repeated, and the opening of students is delayed; Q3 power failure and shutdown of some factories under dual control of energy consumption; Reasons such as the decline of channel traffic of supermarkets. However, the overall business scale increased steadily, and the performance of each quarter was stable and good. By product, the company’s bread / moon cake / zongzi was 6.188/1.33/0.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.01/13.54/69.91%. Consolidate the original Star products and launch new products such as rock baked cake and cranberry slices. In terms of sub regions, on the basis of continuing to focus on the East / South China market, actively expand the Southwest / Xinjiang market, and the central / South / East China region was + 48.38% / 15.48% / 16.85% year-on-year; At the same time, in the mature market of northeast / North China, we continued to speed up the refinement and sinking of sales network, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.82% / 2.34% in Northeast / North China. The annual production capacity is 425000 tons, and the utilization rate is 85.56%. Six factories under construction in Shenyang, Zhejiang and Xinjiang are about to be completed, gradually improving the national layout and enabling future growth.
Rising costs and repeated epidemics put pressure on profits, and the month on month decline of Q4 price increase profits narrowed. The gross profit margin of the company was 26.28% in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.69%, mainly due to: ① the labor cost was low in 20 years due to the impact of the national phased social security relief policy; ② The price of oil, flour, sugar and other raw materials increased, and the cost of products increased; ③ The epidemic situation resumed, sales promotion increased and the discount rate increased. The ratio of sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses of the company in 21 years was 8.71% / 1.76% / – 0.17% / 0.33% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.08 / + 0.21 / – 0.54 / + 0.14pct. 21 years after the epidemic eased, the marketing efforts returned to normal, and the sales expenses increased; Increase in consulting fees; The issuance of convertible bonds earns more interest, which reduces the financial expenses; The increase of labor cost and the preparation and transformation of R & D workshop lead to the increase of R & D expenses. Last year, affected by the social security relief policy, all costs were lower than those in the current period. 21q1-q4 net profit attributable to the parent company was – 16.3% / – 7.5% / – 25.8% / – 1.0% year-on-year. The pressure transmission of raw material cost made the company increase prices and reduce discount rates in different regions since November. At present, the company is in the early stage of capacity construction and has invested a lot in labor cost and asset depreciation, which has an impact on profits. However, with the improvement of terminal layout and the strengthening of multi plant synergy, we are still optimistic about the recovery and development of the company in the future.
The company deeply cultivates the bread industry and creates the leading barrier advantage of short-term insurance. Through more than 10 years of deep cultivation, the industrial chain has formed large-scale comprehensive cost and efficiency advantages in procurement, production, supply, sales and other links. The dealer channel education and supply chain management are mature, the internal replicability is high, and the industrial operation barriers are relatively high. The rhythmic implementation of capacity construction lays the foundation for the expansion of sales scale and provides power for the national regional layout. It is suggested to pay attention to the capacity expansion and market expansion of subsequent companies.
Profit forecast: due to the cost pressure of raw materials and other factors, it is expected that the company’s revenue will be adjusted from 7.79/9.05 billion yuan to 7.07/8.14 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6% / 15.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from 920 / 1090 million yuan to 860 / 990 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.1% / 15.5%, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, food safety risk, market change risk, etc
