Photovoltaic glass is mainly installed on the outermost layer of photovoltaic modules to block the impact of moisture and corrosive gas and protect the cell and electrode. Therefore, the quality of photovoltaic glass directly determines the power generation efficiency and service life of photovoltaic modules.
The concentration of photovoltaic glass industry is high, with CR2 of about 52% in 2020, and the duopoly pattern is stable. The main reason for the oligopoly competition pattern is that the photovoltaic glass industry has obvious scale advantages and technological leading advantages. On the one hand, industry leading companies improve production efficiency, reduce procurement costs and expand market share by expanding production scale; On the other hand, it has strong technical improvement ability and strong product competitiveness. In the next two years Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and Xinyi solar energy, the proportion of new photovoltaic glass production capacity in the industry is expected to further increase.
Compared with other photovoltaic industry segments, photovoltaic glass industry has stronger profitability, higher roe and gross profit margin. With the double glass module opening the growth space of photovoltaic glass, large-size and ultra-thin realize cost reduction and efficiency increase, accelerate the penetration of double glass module, and the prosperity of the industry is high. According to the CPIA forecast, it is estimated that the average growth rate of photovoltaic glass demand during the 14th Five Year Plan period will be about 20%.
Vertically, the relationship between supply and demand affects the price of photovoltaic glass. With the continuous release of upstream raw materials, there is a possibility of overcapacity of photovoltaic glass in 2022. It is expected that the price of photovoltaic glass may remain medium and low in 2022, and the excess income of the industry will be gradually erased. With the advantages of low cost, large scale and sufficient capital, leading enterprises are expected to further consolidate their position.
Horizontal comparison cost is lower. With the intensification of market competition, the photovoltaic glass industry mainly reduces operating costs through large-scale to resist the risk of market fluctuation. From the perspective of procurement and capacity layout, leading enterprises often control procurement costs and improve bargaining power through large-scale procurement of raw materials, and arrange production lines close to mining areas to reduce transportation costs; From the production side, by expanding the production capacity and increasing the production line of large kilns, we can improve the yield and output efficiency of products and effectively reduce the unit manufacturing cost.
It is suggested to pay attention to Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) with obvious cost advantages, large capacity planning volume and strong landing certainty. Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) three highlights support the rapid growth of performance: 1) large-scale and low-cost operation. Improve bargaining power through large-scale procurement of raw materials; Arrange the production line close to the mining area to reduce the transportation cost; By expanding the production capacity and increasing the production line of large kilns, improve the yield and output efficiency of products and reduce the unit manufacturing cost; 2) Leading technology and continuous investment in R & D; 3) Bind downstream component manufacturers.
Risk statement The installed capacity of PV is less than expected, the price rise of raw materials is higher than expected, the price reduction of PV glass is higher than expected, the expansion of the company is lower than expected, the cost continues to rise, the company’s performance does not meet expectations, vicious market competition, systemic risks in the secondary market outside China, the risk of epidemic deterioration outside China is higher than expected, and the economic recovery outside China is lower than expected.
