Kerry released the top 100 list of real estate enterprise sales from January to December 2021. In December, the full caliber sales amount of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 36% year-on-year. Rongchuang ranked first in the industry in terms of monthly sales, with a sales amount of 48.1 billion yuan. Vanke and China Resources Land ranked second and third, with sales amounts of 46.2 billion yuan and 45.3 billion yuan respectively.
Industry: sales are weak, and the month on month growth rate rebounded slightly
In December, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a cumulative sales amount of RMB 1100.7 billion in a single month, a year-on-year increase of – 36%; From January to December, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a total sales amount of 12631.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 3.2%, down 5pct from January to November; In December, the market sales side recovered slightly month on month, but the year-on-year growth rate was still poor. We believe that due to the limited financing in the early stage and the tightening of bank loans, sales have been greatly negatively affected at both ends of supply and demand. We expect that the year-on-year sales data in the first quarter of 2022 will still be relatively weak in the case of a high base in the previous year.
Real estate enterprises: in December, all echelons decreased significantly, and the performance of large and medium-sized real estate enterprises was slightly stronger
In December, the number of real estate enterprises with monthly sales of more than 10 billion was 28, a decrease of 37 compared with the same period of the previous year. Rongchuang China achieved full caliber sales of 48.1 billion yuan in a single month, and Vanke and China Resources Land achieved sales of 46.2 billion yuan and 45.3 billion yuan respectively in a single month. From January to December, country garden, Vanke and rongchuang achieved total sales of 758.8 billion yuan, 620.3 billion yuan and 597.6 billion yuan respectively, ranking among the top three in the industry. In terms of sales growth, the real estate enterprises ranking top 6-15 in December were slightly better than other echelons, and all echelons showed an obvious downward trend; Among the top 30 real estate enterprises, only three real estate enterprises have achieved positive growth in sales scale and poor overall performance.
Investment advice
In December, the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises continued to decline, and the performance of each echelon was weak. At present, the valuation of the real estate sector is still relatively low, with strong performance certainty and high dividends, which deserves special attention. We mainly recommend leading real estate enterprises China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Xuhui holdings, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , etc; Relevant beneficiary objects include Longhu group, China Jinmao, country garden service, Yongsheng life service, Longguang group, etc.
Risk statement
Sales fell short of expectations, and real estate regulation policies continued to tighten.
