What are the market keywords in 2021? I think it’s “rhythm”. We didn’t expect that the market was so fierce this year. The first quarter was still sunny and the third quarter was the darkest moment. We did not expect that the market was so fragile. The main body of the market lay flat and the land cooled down much faster than expected.
However, from an annual perspective, the total amount of financial credit and total real estate sales in 2021 are still stable, and the result is not so bad. What’s the problem? The reason is that the market rhythm is out of balance.
How do we view the drastic fluctuation of market rhythm? The market is not a cold machine, but composed of people. In an era when the stock housing market is becoming more and more important and the Internet information dissemination is becoming more and more convenient, the group expectation has a greater and greater impact on the market. In 2021, China’s external environment experienced ups and downs, and real estate regulatory policies emerged one after another. The emotions of market subjects infected and amplified each other, resulting in market fluctuations no longer as linear and controllable as in the past.
The change of market rhythm does not mean that the market supply and demand structure has changed completely. Since the rhythm imbalance comes from man-made control, it can naturally be ironed by man. This requires us to more accurately obtain real and real-time data to help us predict in advance. How to anchor certainty in uncertainty and cross the cycle with the power of certainty. This is the value of our continuous observation and Research on the market.
In the changeable era, what is certain?
We believe that the timely correction of policy deviation is certain. The implementation of policies will change the expectations and behaviors of different subjects. The long-term mechanism is a mechanism that makes dynamic response according to market changes, and its goal is market stability. When the market rhythm is unstable and even affects the market security, policy correction is bound to occur in the long-term mechanism.
We believe that the return of the market to the mean is certain. The real estate market is a typical cyclical market, which will show the characteristics of mean regression. The law of cycle lies not in time, but in cause and effect. The meaning of the cycle is that when one thing happens, it will bring the next thing, and then the next thing. Market recovery is the return of causality. We should face up to the cycle of the real estate market, not fear.
We believe that consumers’ demand for a better residence is certain. The improvement of housing conditions is the fundamental driving force to promote the development of real estate industry. Compared with the expectation of Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , there is still much room for improvement in China’s housing quality, especially in terms of residential service quality. This is a long-term, sustained and constant demand.
“Thousands of sails pass by the side of a sunken boat and thousands of trees spring in front of a diseased tree”. No matter how the world changes in the future, as long as we firmly grasp the certainty in uncertainty, we will eventually cross the cycle and stand at the forefront of the tide!
