1. Finance is a typical demonstration and is a test field for truly testing and improving domestic software products. G end is easy to fall into price war due to 1) low requirements for products; 2) Unable to test and open the long-term space, resulting in insufficient plate growth attributes. However, the large b-end represented by finance has high requirements for products, and we think it will open up long-term market space. In addition, from the long-term downstream space, the b-end market is much larger than the g-end market. We believe that if the technology of the financial industry can be verified, other N-end industries are expected to be applicable.
2. The pilot of financial localization is coming to an end, and the industrial inflection point is approaching. In 2020, the first phase of the pilot of the financial industry will be launched, mainly the head bank, insurance broker and exchange. The second phase of the pilot was launched in 2021, and the pilot scope was further expanded. The gradual production of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) distributed core system marks the accumulation of domestic technology. In the context of policy driven and technology maturity, we believe that the industrial inflection point will appear in 22-23 years.
3. It is estimated that the scale of financial Xinchuang will reach 20 billion + in 2021, 60 billion in 22 years and 300 billion in 25 years. The financial IT investment is high. It is estimated that the financial IT investment in 20 years is about 269.4 billion yuan. It is expected that the CAGR will be between 15% – 20% in the next 5 years and the market will be 600 + billion in 25 years. With the increase in the proportion of localization, the financial information innovation market has also ushered in rapid growth. It is conservatively estimated that the scale in 21 years is 28.6 billion yuan, the scale in 22 years is 67.3 billion yuan, and the scale in 25 years is 300 + billion yuan. It is estimated that cagr107%. Moreover, if the proportion of Xinchuang is optimistic, the upward elasticity will be greater.
4. In terms of structure, financial localization is evolving from office to business system, from hardware to software. In the past 20 years, the proportion of financial IT investment in hardware and software was about 6:4. It is predicted that the proportion of hardware and software invested by Xinchuang in 2020 will be 70% and 30%. The corresponding hardware and software market in 2020 is 5.7 billion yuan and 2.4 billion yuan respectively; It is estimated that in 2025, the scale of hardware market will reach 170 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of about 98%, and the scale of software market will reach 139.8 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of about 125%.
5. In the name of finance, SASAC led the localization of central enterprises. It involves manufacturing, energy, construction and service industries, which is good for CAX, ERP and PLM. We expect the follow-up policy dividends to continue to be released.
6. Focus on the subject:
We are optimistic about the opportunities brought by the localization of Finance and industry. The investment opportunities are mainly in the three links of bank it + OA / ERP + password. Among them, bank it is expected to lead to a scissors gap between revenue and profit in 2022.
White horse mainly recommends Kingdee International, Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Shanghai Weaver Network Co.Ltd(603039) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , black horse mainly recommends Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) , Fujian Apex Software Co.Ltd(603383) , Beijing Seeyon Internet Software Corp(688369) , Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) , Qingcloud Technologies Corp(688316) , Tansun Technology Co.Ltd(300872) , Primeton Information Technologies Inc(688118) , Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) , China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) , Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) .
Risk tips: the macro economy is depressed, the policy implementation is less than expected, the technology promotion is less than expected, the demand of downstream industries is less than expected, the risk of external technology blockade, the risk of aggravating trade friction, and the risk of subjective deviation in measurement.
