Market review: in December 2021, Shenwan pharmaceutical index rose 0.47%, underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.8%, ranking 24 in the industry market this month. The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to all A-Shares is 99%, the premium rate relative to all A-Shares excluding banks is 47%, and the premium rate relative to the CSI 300 index is 150%. In December, traditional Chinese medicine (+ 15.4%) rose the most in the sub sector of the pharmaceutical industry, and medical R & D outsourcing (- 14.9%) fell the most.
In January, we continued to be optimistic about the consumer goods sector of traditional Chinese medicine. In December, the index of traditional Chinese medicine sector rose by 15.4%, and the industry β Outstanding attributes, continue to be optimistic about the follow-up market of traditional Chinese medicine from the three aspects of policy, fundamentals and valuation. From the policy side, the national medical insurance bureau and the administration of traditional Chinese Medicine issued the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, giving full play to the institutional advantages of medical insurance to support the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, and the immune attribute of medical insurance of traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods is prominent. From a fundamental point of view, there are three opportunities: first, the price of upstream Chinese herbal medicines has increased, and the price of downstream products has increased one after another, such as Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) ; Second, the inventory clearance of downstream channels is coming to an end, and the inventory turnover is accelerated, which is expected to usher in the replenishment cycle; Third, the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises will release dividends, and equity incentives will be implemented one after another, greatly releasing the enthusiasm of employees, which is expected to be realized to the performance end in the future. From the perspective of valuation, the traditional Chinese medicine sector has experienced many years of correction since 2015, with PE (TTM) of 34.2 times, which is equivalent to the overall valuation of medicine and is in the central position. Combined with the annual strategy, in January, we continued to be optimistic about traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, one of the main lines of “crossing medical insurance”, and suggested paying attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Tibet Cheezheng Tibetan Medicine Co.Ltd(002287) , Heilongjiang Zbd Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603567) .
