In the second half of 2021, the real estate market cooled rapidly. In the fourth quarter, the central government and various ministries and commissions frequently released stability maintenance signals, and local governments responded positively, stabilizing market expectations in terms of reducing housing loan interest rate, accelerating mortgage lending time, issuing house purchase subsidies and increasing provident fund loan amount. However, the effect of real estate credit improvement and relevant supporting policies is not obvious. During the new year’s Day holiday in 2022, the market activity of key monitoring cities in China is still insufficient, and the transaction area of new commercial housing has decreased by more than 40% year-on-year.
During the new year’s Day holiday, the market in key cities continued to operate at a low temperature, and the transaction area of second tier and third and fourth tier cities decreased by nearly 60%
During the new year’s Day holiday, the real estate market continued the low temperature trend at the end of 2021. According to the data of China Index, during the new year’s day in 2022 (January 1-3), the transaction area of newly-built commercial houses in key monitoring cities decreased by 42% compared with the same period last year. Buyers have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the market confidence in real estate is still insufficient.
The transaction scale of first tier cities decreased by more than 20% year-on-year, and that of second tier and third and fourth tier representative cities decreased by nearly 60%. During New Year’s day, a total of 251100 square meters of new commercial houses were sold in four first tier cities, a decrease of 24% over the same period last year. The second tier and the third and fourth tier represent a relatively depressed urban market. During the new year’s day in the second tier representative cities, a total of 137400 square meters of new commercial houses were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 57%; The cumulative turnover of the third and fourth tier cities was 16500 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 58%.
Typical city:
Beijing:
During New Year’s day, a total of 12800 square meters of new commercial houses were sold in Beijing (affected by the epidemic in the same period in 2021, the base number was low, and the transaction area was 4000 square meters), with a large year-on-year increase. According to the monitoring of China Index, five projects entered the market during the new year’s Day holiday, of which two are the first batch of centralized land supply projects. Although the sales node has passed in 2021, the marketing enthusiasm and marketing pressure of major real estate projects have not subsided. In addition to special price houses and legislative concessions, the limited competition houses generally implement the discount of 9.8% – 9.9%, which also continues the measures at the end of 2021. On the whole, due to the accelerated entry of new houses into the market in the fourth quarter, the marketing of new house projects is active during the new year’s day, and the preferential measures at the end of the year are continued. However, due to the concentration of projects, especially the new houses in some regions are piled into the market, and the serious homogenization of projects, the overall transformation rate of the project remains at a low level.
Shenzhen:
During the new year’s day, a total of 41000 square meters of new commercial houses were sold in Shenzhen, a decrease of 60% over the same period last year. There is no new market on New Year’s day, and the market continues to be in a relatively depressed state in December 2021. The market wait-and-see mood is high, and the competition between projects is intensified.
Hangzhou:
During New Year’s day, buyers’ willingness to enter the market is general, and regional polarization intensifies. Only 6 sets received pre-sale certificates, and about 500 new pre-sale houses were received, and the pace of entering the market slowed down significantly. Eight projects were opened, and about 800 new houses were promoted. As they are mainly distributed in the suburbs, the overall opening heat is not high, and many projects flow and shake.
Qingdao:
During the new year’s day, a total of 32700 square meters of new commercial houses were sold in Qingdao, a decrease of more than 30% over the same period last year. During the new year’s day, the new house market is mainly promoted, and there are no new projects with pre-sale certificates. In the face of inventory pressure and payment collection pressure before the Spring Festival, most developers continue the promotion policies of years ago and launch promotion policies such as special price houses and discounts. The quality projects with obvious price advantages and high cost performance are relatively rapid, but the overall market performance is relatively calm, The pressure of de commercialization still exists, and the customer’s wait-and-see mood is still strong.
