Core points:
The new energy vehicle sector has a high valuation, but the performance of listed companies has a high growth, and the overvalued value can be digested. In December, the new energy vehicle stocks generally callback, the hot spots are scattered, and the main line logic is missing. It is mainly considered that they have experienced a rapid rise in the early stage, there is a fear of heights in the market, and the liquidity impact at the end of the year is superimposed. As of December 31, 2021, Wande new energy vehicle index rose by 42.7% in the past year. However, the valuation (PE, TTM) decreased by 19.9% to 67.6 times, and the valuation decreased significantly, mainly due to the company's profitability. It is true that the valuation of the new energy automobile sector is high at this stage. However, we believe that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will grow rapidly in 2021 (it is expected that the production and sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will exceed 3.45 million in 2021, with a significant year-on-year increase of more than 150%), the industry chain is booming, the performance of relevant listed companies is expected, and the overestimation can be digested. The current time point is approaching the intensive disclosure period of annual reports / first quarterly reports of listed companies. With the release of 2021 annual reports of relevant listed companies, the high performance growth can be realized, the valuation of new energy vehicles is expected to further explore, and the investment value is prominent.
Lithium prices started the third round of rapid rise, and Pilbara revised the output guidelines
Since December, lithium prices have started the third round of rapid rise, mainly due to seasonal production reduction in Salt Lake and unstable overseas lithium supply, superimposed with downstream spring festival goods preparation. It is expected that the rise of lithium price will slow down and reach a phased high before and after the Spring Festival, but it will remain strong.
On December 21, Pilbara announced the production and operation. The output of lithium concentrate in 2021q4 was 84000-95000 tons (lower than the previous output guideline of 95000-115000 tons), and the output of spodumene concentrate in fiscal year 2022 (2021q3-2022q2) was revised to 400000-450000 tons (the previous output guideline of 460000-510000 tons), which was mainly due to the delay of production line commissioning and expansion construction due to labor shortage. Pilbara is considered to be one of the main forces of lithium supply increment in 2022. Although the current lithium price is rising, Pilbara's output is unexpectedly less than the guidelines, or it indicates that it is difficult for Australia's lithium supply to increase significantly in the short term under the influence of the epidemic.
Toyota announces electrification strategy
On December 14, Toyota President Akio Toyoda presided over the electrification Strategy Briefing and released 16 electric vehicles at one go, including 5 exclusive BZ series of pure electric platform. The first bz4x is planned to be delivered in 2022, with optional roof Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, and the annual power generation can provide an endurance of 1800km. Toyota plans to invest 4 trillion yen (about US $35 billion) on the Bev route, 4 trillion yen on the HEV, PHEV and FCEV routes and 2 trillion yen in the battery field by 2030. By 2030, it will release 30 electric vehicle models worldwide, and Lexus brand will realize 100% pure electric in China, North America and Europe, Worldwide, the sales volume of electric vehicles is 3.5 million.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies of lithium battery materials. With the in-depth interpretation of the market, the market is digging deeper and deeper; At present, the hot sales of new energy vehicles drive the surge in demand, while the supply of lithium ore is rigid, benefiting from the soaring product price under the contradiction between supply and demand, and the performance elasticity of the company is very large! Although the increase in the early stage is huge, there are still opportunities; Traditional car companies are valuation valleys. Over the years, the market has almost ignored traditional fuel car companies and actively transformed new energy vehicles. In the long run, there are opportunities for value revaluation. Maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry.
Risk statement
The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently;
The competition in the new energy vehicle industry has intensified; Intensified competition in power battery industry
