Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) (000902)
event:
On January 5, 2022, Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) announced that Yangfeng Chuyuan, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to sign the investment / service agreement for investment attraction projects with Yidu Municipal People's government to build a production line with an annual output of 100000 tons of iron phosphate and 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, supporting 100000 tons of refined phosphoric acid production line, with a total planned investment of 3 billion yuan, including about 2.5 billion yuan in fixed assets. The construction time of the project is 18 months from the date of obtaining the land real estate certificate.
Key investment points:
Further distribute new energy and enrich the phosphorus chemical industry chain
Yangfeng Chuyuan, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to sign the investment / service agreement for investment promotion projects with Yidu Municipal People's government to build a production line with an annual output of 100000 tons of iron phosphate and 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, supporting 100000 tons of refined phosphoric acid production line, with a total planned investment of 3 billion yuan, including about 2.5 billion yuan in fixed assets. The construction time of the project is 18 months from the date of obtaining the land real estate certificate. The completion of the project will not only help the company make full use of the leading advantages of the phosphorus chemical industry, enrich the product layout of the phosphorus chemical industry chain, seize the development opportunities of the new energy market and meet the growing demand for iron phosphate at home and abroad, but also expand the company's business scale in the phosphorus chemical industry chain such as phosphoric acid and improve its market competitiveness, Consolidate the company's leading advantages in phosphorus chemical industry.
The product price is at a high level, and the profitability of the company remains at a high level
Since 2021, the price of monoammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer has increased significantly. Although the price has dropped recently, it is still at a historical high level. According to wind data, on January 4, 2022, the price of monoammonium phosphate was 2800 yuan / ton, an increase of 37.93% compared with the beginning of 2021; The price of sulfur based compound fertilizer is 3050 yuan / ton, an increase of 41.86% compared with the beginning of 2021; The price of chlorine based compound fertilizer is 2850 yuan / ton, an increase of 50% compared with the beginning of 2021. Affected by the dual carbon policy and dual control of energy consumption, the new capacity of monoammonium phosphate will be limited in the future. At present, the prices of phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer are at a historical high. It is expected that the prices of the company's main products will remain high and volatile in the future, and the company's profitability will also remain at a high level.
The integrated phosphorus chemical industry chain has significant cost and industrial synergy
On August 18, 2021, the company issued the proposal on investing in the construction of 200000 tons of iron phosphate and upstream supporting projects. The company plans to invest in the construction of 200000 tons of iron phosphate and upstream supporting projects. The total planned investment of the project is RMB 2.5-3 billion. The annual output of 100000 tons of iron phosphate, 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate and 100000 tons of phosphoric acid refining project is the company's further layout in new energy materials. The company is a leading enterprise in the phosphorus chemical industry chain. It has accumulated for several years in the phosphorus ore phosphoric acid monoammonium phosphate industry chain and established a strong competitive advantage. The company has a capacity of 1.8 million tons of monoammonium phosphate (including 150000 tons of industrial monoammonium phosphate), ranking first in China, and the company has phosphate rock assets with a design capacity of 900000 tons / year. Benefiting from the return of lithium iron phosphate to the mainstream of lithium battery cathode materials, the lithium iron phosphate industry is expected to continue to enjoy the high momentum driven by downstream demand in the next few years. With abundant phosphate rock resources, complete phosphorus chemical integrated industrial chain and years of industry accumulation, the company will have obvious cost advantages and Industrial Synergy advantages in promoting iron phosphate products.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is a leading enterprise of phosphorus and compound fertilizer. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 1.210 billion yuan, 1.604 billion yuan and 2.080 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 18.21, 13.74 and 10.59 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: risk of crop loss caused by natural disasters; The risk of repeated fermentation of global epidemic affecting downstream demand; The supply of chemical fertilizer increased on a large scale; Safety and environmental protection risks; Risk that the project construction progress is less than expected.
