Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) (300858)
Key investment points:
The company has strong R & D strength, a variety of star strains have broken the international monopoly, the growth rate of edible probiotics is bright, and there is a broad space for domestic substitution. In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue of edible probiotics was 58 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 166.86%. According to Euromonitor International, China's Probiotic market is expected to reach more than 80 billion and maintain double-digit growth. China's Probiotic industry research started late. DuPont of the United States and cohenson of Denmark account for about 85% of China's overall probiotic raw material market, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Founded in 2003, the company has been deeply engaged in research and development in the field of probiotics, constantly narrowing the gap with international giants. There are star strains such as Lactobacillus casei Zhang to break the international monopoly. In recent years, the company has jointly carried out more than 50 clinical trials with a number of top three hospitals in China. At present, 29 projects have been completed, and more than 300 literatures have been published around star strains, which are comparable to international well-known strains, and gradually start domestic substitution. Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) has the patent probiotic Bifidobacterium lactis probio-m8. According to the patent report, probio-m8 has many functions, such as enhancing body immunity, improving intestinal flora diversity, inhibiting the growth of Helicobacter pylori, etc. at present, the patent is in the trial stage.
The company has reached in-depth cooperation with many well-known enterprises in the direction of edible probiotics, and the increase of the proportion of this sector will boost the profitability of the company. The gross profit of the company's edible probiotics sector is as high as 70.78%. In terms of downstream expansion, the company has reached in-depth cooperation with Mengniu Dairy, xiaosunflower health, Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600750) and other well-known enterprises. At the same time, it has also expanded in daily chemicals, leisure food, beauty and other fields. We believe that with the expansion of downstream customers of edible probiotics and the continuous landing of large orders, the edible probiotics sector will continue to maintain a high growth trend in the future, and the continuous improvement of the proportion of edible probiotics with high gross profit will help the company's profit margin rise steadily.
Animal and plant microecological agents are economic and environmental protection, and are gradually popularized, with a promising growth. The animal microecological agent market is in the development stage, benefiting from the promotion of policies, and the downstream landing is in good condition. The business segment maintained rapid growth. In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue of animal and plant probiotics was 35 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.11%. At present, the company's animal and plant probiotics products are mainly used for ruminant breeding, such as cow breeding. In the future, they can be expanded to pig, poultry and other breeding enterprises, with great development potential.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company will accelerate the development of probiotic business, taking into account the business of compound food additives and animal and plant probiotics. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.81 yuan, 1.06 yuan and 1.37 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, and PE to be 56, 43 and 33 respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: 1) repeated epidemic situation; 2) The industry growth did not meet expectations; 3) New product R & D risk; 4) The production capacity launch progress is lower than expected; 5) Food safety issues; 6) High customer concentration
