Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (600309)
The next wave of competitive advantage in the chemical industry lies in the bonus of engineers. Wanhua is a rare example in China where technological innovation drives the development of companies. Based on excellent culture, the company has created two moats of high technology and low cost through technological innovation and excellent operation. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is stepping into the ranks of global chemical giants with the pace of periodic growth stocks.
In the short term, the fundamental factor affecting Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is the prosperity of the product. From the characterization index, the price difference is the core factor affecting the short-term profit. The product system of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is becoming larger and larger. In order to better represent the prosperity of the company, we take the product system of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) as a whole, model the difference between revenue and raw materials according to the existing product system, trace the price difference between revenue and raw materials in history under the existing product system, and define the price difference as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) price difference index, To judge the prosperity position of the company. In the long run, the fundamental factor affecting Wanhua is its future growth. Landmark products that can prove the company’s ability to continuously evolve are very important. If an excellent company can succeed on different tracks, it will prove that it has the ability of continuous evolution and will be able to grow continuously. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has proved itself on the MDI track. The projects that the company may land in the future are the direction of the company’s future development and the space for the company’s continuous evolution.
Progress of key projects
On December 10, 2021, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) lithium ion battery material R & D pilot project environmental impact assessment documents were accepted and publicized.
On December 16, 2021, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) the draft of the environmental impact report for the technical transformation project of special isocyanate type high-end thermoplastic polyurethane elastomer (TPU) with an annual output of 25000 tons was publicized.
On December 16, 2021, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 850000 T / a polyether polyol expansion project’s draft environmental impact report was publicized.
On December 20, 2021, Yantai Ecological Environment Bureau publicized the approval opinions on the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 400000 T / a propylene oxide (pochp) project.
On December 20, 2021, Yantai ecological environment bureau announced its approval opinions on the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 100000 t / a methylamine project.
On December 20, 2021, Yantai Ecological Environment Bureau publicized the approval opinions on the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 3 ten thousand ton / year polyurethane curing agent project.
On December 20, 2021, Yantai ecological environment bureau announced its approval opinions on the third phase of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) catalyst preparation project.
On December 22, 2021, Yantai Ecological Environment Bureau publicized the approval opinions on the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 200000 t / a maleic anhydride project.
On December 23, 2021, Yantai ecological environment bureau announced its approval opinions on the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) citral and its derivatives integration project.
On December 23, 2021, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Sichuan) Co., Ltd. publicized the exposure draft of the environmental impact report of the 80000 T / a NMP project. The project is planned to start construction in March 2021 and be completed and put into operation in December 2023.
According to incomplete statistics, according to the average price in 2021, if all the existing planned projects are put into operation as scheduled, it is expected that the new revenue will be 26.2 billion yuan in 2022, 59.7 billion yuan in 2023, and 157.6 billion yuan will be added after all the projects are put into operation.
MDI price spread
In December 2021, the average price of aggregate MDI was 19010 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.14% and a month on month increase of – 1.48%; The average price of pure MDI was 20542 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of -12.90% and a month on month increase of -10.90%. On December 31, 2021, the price of aggregate MDI is 20250 yuan / ton, and the price of pure MDI is 20650 yuan / ton. In December 2021, the average price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene was 13247 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year ratio of – 5.90% and a month on month ratio of + 1.00%; The average price difference of pure MDI was 14780 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year ratio of – 25.18% and a month on month ratio of – 12.42%. On December 31, 2021, the price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene is 14435 yuan / ton, and the price difference of pure MDI is 14835 yuan / ton.
The Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) spread index is in the historical quantile of 38.57%
As of January 1, 2022, Q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) spread index in 2021 was 101.26, 3.94 lower than Q3 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 38.57%, 4.69 percentage points lower than Q3 in 2021. Among them, the price difference index of Q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) polyurethane plate in 2021 was 116.80, an increase of 4.35 compared with Q3 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 32.74%, an increase of 3.02 percentage points over Q3 in 2021. The price spread index of Q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) petrochemical sector in 2021 was 90.37, down 17.99 compared with Q3 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 43.76%, 32.11 percentage points lower than Q3 in 2021. In 2021, the price difference index of Q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) new materials was 67.29, an increase of 5.33 compared with Q3 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 40.30%, an increase of 8.96 percentage points over Q3 in 2021.
The output of refrigerators, freezers and cars in the downstream and the new construction of real estate improved month on month
From January to November 2021, China produced 82.35 million household refrigerators, a year-on-year increase of – 0.7%; The export volume was 65.76 million units, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3%. From January to October 2021, China produced 32.59 million freezers, a year-on-year increase of + 11.7%; The export volume was 20.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of + 8.1%. Among them, in November 2021, China produced 8.085 million household refrigerators, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.30% and a month on month increase of + 5.87%; The export volume was 5.69 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 19.41% and a month on month increase of – 3.9%. In October 2021, China produced 3.125 million freezers, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.9% and a month on month increase of + 0.6%; The export volume was 1.837 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 24.7% and a month on month increase of – 1.0%.
From January to November 2021, China’s automobile output was 23.15 million, a year-on-year increase of + 3.7%; In November 2021, China’s automobile output was 2.58 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.31% and a month on month increase of + 10.90%.
From January to November 2021, the new construction area of houses was 1.828 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 9.1%; In November 2021, the new construction area of houses was 161 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 21% and a month on month increase of + 16.7%. From January to November 2021, the cumulative construction area of houses was 9.597 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 6.3%.
Profit forecast and investment rating
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 25.713 billion, 26.634 billion and 28.528 billion respectively, corresponding to PE of 12.3, 11.9 and 11.1 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
Economic downturn; The project construction is not as expected; The market fluctuates greatly; New products are not as expected; Environmental protection and safety production; Intensified competition in the same industry; Product prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
