Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
Performance review
On January 4, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 930-1.15 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 29.4% - 60%. The performance is in line with our expectations.
Business analysis
The production of advantageous products has been expanded and the market share has been continuously improved. The company has an anselmi production capacity of 12000 tons, with a global market share of more than 60%; The production capacity of sucralose is 8000 tons, ranking first in the world. With the growth of production, the market share will continue to increase; The company's maltol production capacity is 4000 tons, including 70% market share of methyl maltol and 50-60% market share of ethyl maltol. It is expected that the company's 5000 tons of methyl ethyl maltol will be put into operation in 2022, and the company's market share will gradually increase.
Product prices resonate upward. After July 2021, affected by the rising price of raw materials and the improvement of product supply and demand pattern, the price of the company's core products resonated upward, in which the price of sucralose products increased from 220000 / T to 480000 / T; The price of Acer honey products increased from 65000 / ton to 88000 / ton; The price of Maltol products increased from 105000 / T to 140000 / T. At present, the company's product sales are mainly divided into long order sales and market-based sales. The long order sales account for 40-50%, which has smoothed the price cycle to a certain extent, and the demand for sweetener products is growing. The company will fully benefit from the profit growth brought by the price rise.
Investment advice
The price of the company's core products is booming. We revised the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1.091 billion, 1.929 billion and 2.351 billion respectively (the predicted values of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 were RMB 1.15 billion, 1.85 billion and 2.1 billion respectively), EPS were RMB 194, 3.44 and 4.19 respectively, and the current market value corresponding to PE was 24.5x, 13.9x and 11.4x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
Product sales are lower than expected; Falling product prices; The company's production capacity construction and launch progress were less than expected.
