In February, domestic Tesla wholesale 56515 vehicles, accounting for 58.9% of exports. In February 2022, the wholesale volume of domestic Tesla was 56515, with a year-on-year increase of + 208.52% and a month on month increase of – 5.56%. Among them, 23200 vehicles were sold domestically, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.7% and a month on month increase of + 19.92%; 33315 vehicles were exported, with a month on month ratio of – 17.74%. In February, domestic Tesla still focused on exports, accounting for 58.9%. From January to February, domestic Tesla sold 116360 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 244%. Shanghai factory undertook the task of supplying European and Asian markets. The first two months of each quarter are mainly used for export, while the last month will be mainly used for domestic sales.
The wholesale volume of domestic model y is 32000, and the wholesale volume ratio of my / m3 is 1.34. In terms of models, 24112 domestic model 3 were wholesale in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 76.15% and a month on month increase of – 9.18%; Domestic modely wholesale 32403 vehicles, up + 599.8% year-on-year and – 2.7% month on month. In February, the monthly wholesale volume ratio of domestic modely / Model3 was 1.34. In 2022, Tesla Shanghai plant will usher in the expansion of production, and the sales volume of modely will be further improved with the increase of production capacity. We expect that the sales volume my / m3 ratio will be increased to 2 in 2022.
Model 3 exported 19505 vehicles and continued to contribute to the main export volume. In February, domestic Tesla exported 33315 vehicles, including 19505 model 3, which continued to be the main export model, accounting for 80.9%; Model y exports 13810 vehicles, accounting for 42.6%. According to the statistics of monthly export volume, in the quarterly periodic change of Tesla’s export volume, the export proportion of model 3 ranges from 0-100% and the quarterly peak is about 90%; The export proportion of modely ranges from 0-50%, with a quarterly peak of about 50%; The total export of Model3 & Y accounts for 0-75% and the quarterly peak is about 70%. The export peak in January of this quarter was 67.7%, which was lower than 73.9% and 74.8% of the peak in the previous two quarters, while the export proportion in February was 58.9%, which was significantly higher than that in the same period of the previous quarter (November 2021), accounting for 40%. We think this is a supplement to the export volume in January.
Model y sells 18593 vehicles domestically and is expected to become the SUV sales crown model. In February, the domestic sales of model 3 and model y were 4607 / 18593 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.65% / + 301.58%. According to the passenger Association, modely ranks second in new energy SUV and first in high-end SUV. We predict that the domestic sales of modely will reach 400000 in 2022, which is expected to become the top selling model of SUV in the whole market.
Tesla’s sales volume in North America was 45000, doubling year-on-year, and modely’s sales volume exceeded 20000 for six consecutive months. In February, Tesla sold 45372 vehicles in North America, a year-on-year increase of + 100.44%. The best-selling model model y sold 22094 vehicles, with sales exceeding 20000 for six consecutive months. Specific to the American Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car market, Tesla once again surpassed Toyota in terms of sales volume of 43742; In the current month, the sales volume of modely in the United States was 21242, and the sales volume of Model3 was 16000.
Tesla’s European sales lagged behind the export of Shanghai factory for 2 months, and the production of Berlin factory accelerated the large-scale volume of Tesla’s European market. In February, the sales volume of Model3 and modely in Europe was 4632 / 3317 respectively. Under the condition of completely relying on imports, Tesla’s sales volume in Europe reached 33885 / 35089 respectively in September / December 2021, ranking fourth / sixth in the sales volume of European new energy vehicle market respectively. Model3 has won the European new energy vehicle market for many times. In December 2021, the sales volume of Model3 in Europe was 26105, 2.27 times that of the second Renault Zoe (11504); In that month, the sales volume of modely reached 8823, ranking fourth. Tesla’s monthly sales volume in the European market showed obvious quarterly fluctuations, which significantly corresponded to the quarterly fluctuations in China’s export proportion, with a time difference of about two months. In the European market, Model3 is the main sales model of Tesla. On the one hand, modely entered the European market late, on the other hand, modely from Shanghai factory should give priority to meeting the strong demand of the Chinese market, and the export capacity to Europe is limited. With the delivery of modely from the plant in Berlin, Germany, on March 22, we expect the sales volume of modely in the European market to increase rapidly and surpass Model3, and Tesla’s sales growth potential in the European market will also be released.
Industry rating and investment strategy: Tesla delivered 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 87%. From January to February 2022, Tesla sold 116360 vehicles domestically, a year-on-year increase of 244%. Tesla is the core supplier of the industrial chain, with both volume and price rising. By enabling domestic suppliers with highly integrated solutions, Tesla continues to expand categories and enhance system integration capabilities, thus promoting the value of supporting single vehicles, which is just the opposite of the traditional OEM supply system. This trend will also be reflected in the reform of the supply system of new forces. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automobile industry.
Focus on individual stocks: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting, which will promote the Tesla wave in the next stage. We expect that Tesla will appear in batches in 2022: Tesla will become the largest customer, and new forces will enter the domestic suppliers of Tesla industrial chain of the top five customers. The recommendation of ‘ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
Risk tip: Tesla Berlin plant and Texas plant are not progressing as expected; Tesla’s Shanghai plant expanded less than expected; The recovery of automobile chip shortage is less than expected; Tesla’s global sales fell short of expectations; Focus on the company’s performance less than expected.
