Event: Recently, listed insurance companies successively released the premium income data from January to February 2022. The cumulative premium income and year-on-year growth from the first two months of 2022 in the first two months of 2022 in the first two months of 2022 years from January to February, and the year-on-year growth is as follows: The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) rmb241.2 billion (yoy-5.0%).
Comments:
I. The premium income of life insurance has recovered slightly, and the value of new orders may still be under pressure
The year-on-year growth rate of life insurance premium income of Chinese Listed Companies in a single month in February is: PICC Life Insurance (+ 18.7%) CPIC life insurance (+ 14.9%) New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (+ 11.1%) China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (- 3.1%) Ping An Life Insurance (- 4.7%). The life insurance premium income of each company is obviously differentiated, the premium income of China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) is under pressure year-on-year, and the premium income of The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) has increased year-on-year. In February, the new single premium of PICC Life Insurance and health insurance reached 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 330.3%, including life insurance + 94.8% and health insurance + 7630.4%. The growth of new single premium mainly depends on the single premium business. From the perspective of the industry as a whole, the monthly premium income of the above five listed life insurance companies in February was + 1.2% year-on-year, an increase of 1.4pct compared with the growth rate in January, mainly due to the growth of single payment business in bancassurance channel and the deepening of channel reform of major insurance enterprises. Since 2021, the manpower scale of the life insurance industry has continued to decline, and the team is short of manpower. The recent epidemic has repeatedly restrained the insurance demand. It is expected that the growth of new orders and NBV will still be under pressure.
II. The growth rate of auto insurance premiums exceeded expectations, and the leading property insurance enterprises have obvious advantages
The year-on-year growth rate of property insurance premium income of Chinese Listed Companies in February was: CPIC property insurance (+ 22.5%) Ping An Property Insurance (+ 17.6%) PICC Property Insurance (+ 13.4%) Zhong’an online (+ 2.8%). The growth rate of premium income of leading property insurance enterprises remains high, and the competitive advantage of the industry is obvious. Overall, the monthly premium income of listed property insurance companies in February was + 15.7% year-on-year, an increase of 4.3pct compared with the growth rate in January. We believe that the high growth of premium income of property insurance enterprises is mainly due to the higher than expected growth of premium income of auto insurance. The monthly premium income of PICC Property Insurance in February was 14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.9%. Since October 2021, it has achieved positive growth for five consecutive months, and the growth rate has increased steadily. As the pressure of comprehensive reform of automobile insurance slows down, the average premium of vehicles increases, the superposition of the epidemic affects the demand for vehicles, and the comprehensive cost rate continues to improve. It is expected that the premium income of automobile insurance will still be the main source of property insurance premium income. In terms of non auto insurance, the growth rate of PICC Property insurance premium income slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.2% in February and a decrease of 1PCT compared with the growth rate in January, including Italian health insurance + 15.8% and enterprise property insurance – 16.1% year-on-year. The structure of premium income continued to be adjusted.
Investment suggestion: the pressure on the liability side may continue, and the marginal improvement on the asset side is expected. At present, the transformation of life insurance business is under great pressure. Due to the decline in the number of agents and the repeated impact of the epidemic on product sales, the growth of new life insurance orders may continue to be under pressure, and the inflection point at the liability end has not yet arrived. The long-term interest rate on the asset side rebounded slightly. As of March 15, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds was 2.8%, an increase of 4.23bps since the beginning of the year, but it is still at a historical low. We expect the marginal improvement on the asset side; Recently, affected by the international political situation, the pressure on the equity market is obvious, and the investment income of equity assets is lower than expected. In terms of policy, the 2022 government work report proposed to strengthen social security and services, continue to standardize the development of the third pillar of old-age insurance, and the allocation value of old-age insurance enterprises is expected to increase. It is recommended that the auto insurance business continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and China Property Insurance with outstanding scale advantages. It is recommended to pay attention to Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H) of multi line health and elderly care industry.
Risk tip: the long-term interest rate goes down; The epidemic situation repeats on a large scale; Premium growth was less than expected
