Events. The Geneva pharmaceutical patent pool (MPP) announced that it had signed agreements with 35 generic pharmaceutical companies to produce Pfizer's oral covid-19 antiviral drug paxlovid and supply it to 95 low-income and middle-income countries. Among Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises, Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , and deseno were selected.
Viewpoint: MPP authorizes Pfizer to supply covid-19 generic drugs from multiple countries, and Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises help prevent and control the global epidemic
\u3000\u30001. The population of MPP authorized supply countries accounts for 53% of the world, covering about 4 billion people. According to the MPP official website, there are 95 authorized suppliers of Pfizer's oral covid-19 antiviral drug paxlovid generic drugs, all of which are low-income and middle-income countries, accounting for 53% of the world's total population and covering about 4 billion people. We believe that this initiative will greatly improve the global accessibility of covid-19 oral small molecule drugs, effectively increase the treatment rate of covid-19 infected people, reduce the risk of epidemic spread, and play a positive role in global epidemic prevention and control.
\u3000\u30002. What are the other steps after obtaining the qualification? After signing the current agreement, Pfizer will make technical handover with authorized enterprises and provide technical packages to corresponding enterprises. The enterprise then carries out the research and development of API and preparation according to the technical package, and then submits PQ application to who. After submitting the PQ application, who may or may not conduct on-site verification; The specific follow-up time and process arrangement depend on the company's R & D capability.
\u3000\u30003. Volume, price and countries of supply? The main supply objects are low - and middle-income countries. The volume and price are negotiated by the business team with governments or large drug dealers. Neither Merck nor Pfizer authorized MPP countries include China.
\u3000\u30004. Brief calculation of market scale of covid-19 small molecule paxlovid generic drugs
1) according to MPP, 95 low - and middle-income countries will receive paxlovid generic drugs this time, covering a basic population of about 4 billion; At present, Merck (20 million doses) and Pfizer (120 million doses) have a total of 140 million courses of treatment, which will be sold to Europe and the United States (the total basic population is about 930 million), corresponding to one dose per 664 people;
2) assuming that the global actual average infection rate is the same as the statistical infection rate in Europe and America, and the treatment rate is 60% in Europe and America, the MPP authorized supplier countries will obtain 360 million doses of covid-19 small molecule in 2022;
3) Dr. Reddy's laboratories, India Ltd has disclosed that the cost of a single course of treatment of generic molflo is US $18.77. Assuming that after extensive supply, the average price of covid-19 small molecule MPP supplier countries is 70% of this price, about US $13.14 per course of treatment;
4) assuming that the market share of molnupiravir and paxlovid generic products will be 25% and 75% respectively in the future, the corresponding market space of paxlovid generic drugs will be about US $3.5 billion.
Risk warning: the risk that the R & D progress is less than expected; Risk of epidemic development and change; Regulatory policy changes.
