In the first two months of this year, foreign capital continued to increase its holdings of A-share banks. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there has been a significant net outflow of funds going north. Bank shares have changed from net inflow of foreign capital to net outflow, and the range of net outflow ranks in the forefront of all industries.
From the perspective of individual stocks, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, most bank stocks have seen a net outflow of foreign capital. From the perspective of the change in the proportion of foreign capital holdings, Ping An, China Construction, Qilu and Bank of China have seen a large net outflow. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, some banks continue to have a net inflow or turn to a net inflow, mainly Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and high-quality urban and rural commercial banks, including Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) .
Reiterate the view that we continue to be optimistic about bank stocks, and the market driven by steady growth and steady real estate continues. On March 16, Liu he presided over a special meeting of the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council to stabilize the expectations of the economy, finance and capital markets. In response to the main problems worried by the market, they responded one by one, and then emphasized the policies of stabilizing credit, real estate and market. The attitude of maintaining stability is clear, and the measures of maintaining stability may be effective. We still believe that macro demand is weak and the effectiveness of stabilizing growth is not achieved. We should not be overly pessimistic. Policies will continue to work, especially those on the demand side. The economy has a cycle and policy has space. We should pay attention to the power and effectiveness of policies.
Individual stocks continue to recommend high-quality urban rural commercial bank: Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) and so on. Core targets continue to be recommended: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) . When the market is weak, we pay attention to the value of undervalued targets.
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there has been a significant net outflow of foreign capital from bank shares
(1) from January to February this year, before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, foreign capital continued to net flow into bank shares, and the net inflow increment was in the forefront of all 31 Shenwan industries. From the perspective of the increment of total market value and the increment of market value excluding the influence of stock price, it was in the first and second place respectively. (2) After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the capital market fluctuated sharply, and the foreign ownership of bank shares also turned into a large net outflow, and the scale of net outflow was at a high level in the industry.
In terms of individual stocks, most companies were reduced after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, referring to Wande data, 29 of the 36 foreign-owned banks had net outflow. According to the change of the proportion of foreign-owned banks in the free circulation market value, Ping An, CCB, Qilu, China and Zhejiang merchants decreased the most. In terms of the proportion of holdings reduction and interval trading volume, Ping An, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Bank of China accounted for a relatively high proportion of holdings reduction.
Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and sustained net inflow of high-quality urban farmers and merchants
According to the change of the proportion of the market value held by foreign capital, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and high-quality urban and rural commercial banks, including Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) still maintain the net inflow of foreign capital in the post conflict market adjustment between Russia and Ukraine. Among them, the increased holdings of postal savings and Chengdu account for a high proportion of the range trading volume. Foreign investors may continue to be optimistic about the fundamentals of these banks, or believe that the impact of changes in international relations on these banks is limited.
The stock of foreign capital holdings is concentrated in China Merchants Bank, Ping An, Ningbo and other banks
Referring to the data of land stock connect, from the absolute level of the total market value, China Merchants, Ping An, Societe Generale, Ningbo and ICBC continue to be the highest. From the perspective of market value, Ping An holds the highest proportion in Ningbo and Changshu, accounting for 3% – 6.4% of the total market value. In terms of the increase in the proportion of positions, Chengdu, postal savings, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Changshu increased the most in the whole year, and still increased net after adjustment.
Risk tip: the economy has fallen sharply and real estate risks have erupted in an all-round way.
