Industry core view:
From the allocation of fund positions in 2021q4, the allocation of the communication industry has been low. Although it has increased slightly in Q4, the allocation proportion is still at a historically low level. In 2021q4, Shenwan communication industry index is in an upward trend, but the trading volume has decreased, and the industry valuation is currently in a reasonably low range.
Key investment points:
The position of the communication industry continued to decline year-on-year and was in the state of low allocation: the proportion of fund positions in the communication industry has entered the downward channel since Q1 in 2020, and the current allocation level is at a low level. 2021q4 fund positions accounted for 0.82%, with a low allocation of 0.45pct. Compared with 2020q4, 2021q4 decreased by 0.09pct year-on-year and slightly increased by 0.09pct month on month compared with 2021q3.
The composition of the top ten heavyweight stocks of partial equity funds in the communication industry is relatively stable: among them, Yealink Network Technology Co.Ltd(300628) , Zte Corporation(000063) , Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) ranked among the top ten heavyweight stocks for four consecutive quarters, and Hangzhou Anysoft Information Technology Co.Ltd(300571) entered the top ten heavyweight stocks for the first time since four quarters. Although the ranking of the top ten heavyweight stocks has changed, the composition is basically the same. They are all high-quality enterprises with high degree of productization and good business model in each subdivided industry. Looking at the change in the market capitalization from the change in the market value of the shareholding, the top ten stocks that will be added in the 2021q4quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter from the change in the change in the market capitalization, as seen from the change in the market capitalization, the top ten shares of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter from the change in the change in the market capitalization, the top ten stocks of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter of the 2021quarter are 3 Zuming Bean Products Co.Ltd(003030) 30303030308 394 and Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) . The top ten stocks of the fund are mainly distributed in the Internet of things module, optical module industry chain, digital economy infrastructure and energy digitization related fields.
Investment suggestions:
From the market and valuation of 2021q4, the allocation proportion of the communication industry has been at a historically low level, and the valuation is at a more reasonable level after continuous digestion. From the subject matter of 2021q4 fund position increase and combined with the performance forecast, the undervalued company with high performance is an important direction of capital concern at present. In the future when the structural market in the communication industry continues to evolve, we suggest paying attention to four investment tracks in the communication industry: (1) operators & equipment manufacturers: 5g construction continues to promote, and the prosperity of traditional communication services is rising. With the expansion of 5g construction, the performance of communication construction and operation and maintenance industrial chain has increased significantly, and the cloud network construction of data center and 5g2b business also opens new growth space for operators & communication equipment manufacturers. (2) Optical module: with a new round of demand growth and the promotion of optical module technology, the industry is expected to usher in a new round of double clicking in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading optical module enterprises on the digital communication side. (3) Internet of things module: in the next two years, the Internet of vehicles module will still be one of the main directions of the future market growth of the Internet of things module. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with deep layout in the Internet of vehicles industrial chain. (4) Energy Digitization: under the background of “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutralization”, energy digitization is imperative. The scale of smart grid market related to new energy is expanding year by year, which has brought new performance growth points to relevant network construction, operation and maintenance, network security and other industries.
Risk factors: increased trade friction, China’s 5g construction does not meet expectations, the slowdown of global cloud computing construction, and the price fluctuation of upstream raw materials.
