The EU carbon tax reform policy has a far-reaching impact, which is of great benefit to China’s green energy development
On March 15, 2022, the European Council preliminarily adopted the EU carbon tariff policy. On March 15, 2022, at the meeting of the economic and Financial Affairs Committee (Ecofin), the finance ministers of 27 EU countries adopted the proposal of EU carbon tariff (also known as carbon border regulation mechanism, CBAM) of France, the rotating presidency of the European Council. The proposal will have a far-reaching impact on Global trade, force the global high-carbon industrial chain to accelerate the transformation and upgrading, accelerate the substitution process of clean energy for traditional energy, and benefit the development of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) industrial chain, especially new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power and other industries. New energy vehicles: the contradiction between supply and demand in the industrial chain has reached the critical point. Leading companies have reduced the purchase volume of lithium carbonate. It is expected that the upstream price will peak and the industrial environment will improve marginally in the future. We should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (1) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (battery, lithium resources, diaphragm, negative electrode, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , etc; (2) Post cycle: according to the elastic investment of growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors, Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc. will benefit; (3) New technology: invest according to the penetration rate, such as 4680, flat wire, etc. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) etc. Photovoltaic: in the coming year, the distributed installed capacity is expected to exceed expectations, the upstream silicon supply will be gradually released, and the growth environment of the industry will be further straightened out. We are mainly optimistic about three directions: (1) terminal links such as global leading components with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , etc; (2) Innovation at the industrial end (n-type battery, granular silicon, localization of parts, etc.) benefits Jingke energy, poly GCL energy, Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) etc. (3) Power station and other post cycle links, Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , etc. Wind power: the price reduction of industrial chain products has formed a good positive demand feedback. The real parity upward cycle will be started in 2022, and the industry valuation system is expected to be reshaped. We are optimistic about offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts for a long time, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
The reform of EU carbon tariff has been promoted rapidly, and the traditional high emission industries have been transformed and upgraded
The EU carbon tariff aims to levy relevant taxes on imported goods from countries and regions with relatively loose carbon emission restrictions, so as to implement the EU climate goal. In July 2021, the European Commission put forward the carbon tariff proposal for the first time and planned to implement it from January 1, 2023. The tariff covers high carbon emission industries such as aluminum, steel, cement and chemical fertilizer. According to the proposal, 20232025 is the transitional period for the implementation of the carbon tariff. Imported products do not need to pay carbon tariff, but reports including the total amount of imported products, direct and indirect carbon emissions of products and other information need to be submitted every quarter. From 2026, the EU will officially and comprehensively levy carbon tariffs. Because most of China’s export manufacturing products are at the middle and low end of the industrial chain and the energy consumption is generally high, China is a net exporter of “carbon emissions” in international trade. If the EU implements the carbon tariff policy in the future, it will have a great impact on China’s export-oriented industrial chain.
Germany accelerates the transformation of green energy and helps the EU achieve its emission reduction targets
On February 28, 2022, the German Ministry of economy issued a draft to accelerate the development of wind energy and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry, and plans to achieve the goal of 100% renewable energy power supply by 2035. Previously, in 2018, Germany planned to achieve the goal of 80% renewable energy power supply by 2040. This time, it is to further speed up, demonstrating Germany’s determination to accelerate the transformation of green energy. Germany is an important driving force for the EU’s new energy development. The promulgation of this draft reflects Germany’s attention to the clean energy industry and helps to lead the EU to accelerate the achievement of emission reduction targets.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as expected, the industry competition intensifies, and the price of the industrial chain fluctuates sharply.
