Industry performance: the premium of property insurance industry increased steadily, and the premium of life insurance appeared differentiation. 1) Property insurance: from January to February, the premium income of taibaocai / Ping An CAI / PICC CAI / Zhong’an online yoy + 15.7% / + 11.0% / 13.6% / + 8.3%, and the monthly premium income of February taibaocai / Ping An CAI / PICC CAI / Zhong’an online yoy + 22.5% / + 18.0% / + 13.4% / + 2.8%. Benefiting from the low base of benchmark premium, PICC finance February auto insurance premium yoy + 14.9%; In terms of non car insurance, the non car insurance premium of PICC in February was yoy + 12.1%. 2) Life insurance: from January to February, life insurance premiums of PICC (YoY + 26.4%), Xinhua (YoY + 5.2%), taibaoshou (YoY + 2.3%), Ping An Life (yoy-1.8%) and Guoshou (yoy-5.0%); In February, the monthly premiums of TPL (YoY + 14.9%), Xinhua (YoY + 11.0%), PICC (YoY + 5.7%), Guoshou (yoy-3.1%) and Ping An Life (yoy-4.9%). We believe that the performance of the new single premium is still sluggish due to the weak impact of supply and demand.
Both liabilities and investments are under pressure, and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) performance is lower than expected Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) 2021: revenue / net profit attributable to parent company reached RMB 1180444 million and 101618 billion, yoy-3.1% / – 29.0% (excluding China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) impairment impact yoy-12.0%). The company increased the provision for life insurance and long-term health insurance liability, resulting in a decrease in pre tax profit of RMB 22.566 billion. Roeyoy-7pcts to 13%; Dividend yoy + 8.2% per share; The embedded value of the group is 1.40 trillion yuan, yoy + 5.1%.
Affected by the weak transformation of nby-5y life insurance and personal insurance (vyoy-8y) business, it continued to decline to 37.8 billion yuan. The high increase in the withdrawal difference resulted in a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% in the remaining marginal balance. The size of the team continued to decline, but the per capita production capacity was improved. By the end of 21, the number of agents was yoy-41.4% to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) , and the per capita new single premium increased by more than 22% year-on-year.
2) the comprehensive cost rate of property insurance was optimized, and the underwriting profit increased significantly: the original premium income of property insurance in 2021 was yoy-5.5%; CORyoy-1.1pct98. 0%, underwriting profit yoy + 145.7%. The original premium income of auto insurance is yoy-3.7%, and the COR is 98.9%. The premium of Italian health insurance and non motor vehicle insurance is yoy + 32.6% / – 19.4%, and the underwriting loss of liability insurance (COR is 105.1%).
3) China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) event continues to affect investment performance. By the end of 2021, the company had accrued a total impairment of China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) investment of 43.2 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3 billion yuan over the end of June 21, and the estimated impairment accrual ratio was 80%. In our judgment, the increase in impairment is mainly affected by the continuous increase of China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) cumulative debt default scale. The total return on investment is 0.5t-4.5pcy%, and the total return on investment is 0.4%.
Investment suggestion: new life insurance orders of listed insurance companies are expected to have marginal improvement year-on-year, and property insurance is expected to grow steadily. The epidemic has brought some pressure on the liability side of life insurance, but with the end of the first quarter and the gradual reduction of base pressure, the year-on-year gap of new orders in the second quarter is expected to narrow; It is expected that the growth rate of property insurance premiums in Q2 will be stable and slightly lower, but will remain stable. We believe that the year-on-year base high of Ping An Life insurance business has passed, the leading advantage of property insurance business is expected to continue to highlight, and the China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) risk is basically cleared. It is recommended to pay attention to Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) .
Risk tips: downward interest rates, sharp market fluctuations, policy risks and repeated epidemics.
