\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Core conclusion
The annual revenue performance exceeded expectations, and some expenses were confirmed in advance at the end of the year. The company released the performance forecast. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 13.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.54%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.201 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.14%. In 2021q4, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 3.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.56%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 322 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.58%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 299 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.06%. The whole year ended smoothly in 2021, with revenue growth slightly higher than expected and Q4 revenue higher. The performance was mainly due to the early spring festival and the early confirmation of sales expenses arising from goods preparation in some peak seasons in 2021q4.
During the Spring Festival, the scenes of gifts and banquets were restored, and the price of raw pulp in the year and the sales of products were all better. According to the feedback of channel research, the company’s product structure will accelerate the upgrading in 2021. It is expected that gu8 will increase in double digits, gu16 will increase by more than 50%, the cultivation of core opinion leaders is good, more than 20 markets in gu16 have doubled, the dynamic sales of gu8 and above products in the province are good, the inventory remains benign, and the consumption space of more than 200 yuan will continue to be developed. During the Spring Festival, benefiting from the moderate and reasonable epidemic prevention policy this year, the number of people returning home increased significantly year-on-year, and the scenes of local economic activities, visiting relatives and friends, giving gifts and banquets were basically restored. In addition to the bright performance of gu8 and above, the sales of gifts and gu5 terminals were also significantly improved, and the inventory of dealers was digested to a low level.
Investment suggestion: the structural improvement is expected to be further accelerated in 2022, the performance probability is good, and the medium and long-term goal of 20 billion is highly certain. According to channel feedback, the company’s goal in 2022 is positive, strengthening the growth assessment of gu8 and above, which is expected to maintain a growth of more than 25% inside and outside the province, and the structural upgrading releases gross profit space. After years of cultivation, GU20 is gradually stable, the cost contraction and performance flexibility are stronger. Superimposed with the expectation of the implementation of the reform of state-owned enterprises and the low base dividend in the early stage, we believe that under the multiple high certainty logic of expansion outside the province, upgrading in the province and large-scale single products, the company is expected to have a better performance in 2022, and is expected to achieve the revenue target of 20 billion in the 14th five year plan and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the structural upgrading in the province is not as expected; Intensified competition in real estate in the province; The expansion outside the province was less than expected
