\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 933 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) )
Event overview
The company released its 2021 annual report: in 2021, it achieved a revenue of 3.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.2%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 230 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.9%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 850 million yuan, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year and 9.5% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 30 million, a year-on-year decrease of 82.1%, a month on month decrease of 61.7%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 20 million, a year-on-year decrease of 90.3% and a month on month decrease of 78.3%.
Analysis and judgment:
The revenue performance is better than that of the industry, and the acquisition of new electric intelligent projects is accelerated
The company's revenue in 2021 was RMB 3.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 23.7%, compared with the global automobile production in the same period, a year-on-year increase of + 3.1%, of which the revenue in 2021q4 was RMB 850 million, a year-on-year increase of + 0.8% and a month on month increase of + 9.5%. We judged that the performance was significantly better than that of the industry, mainly because the mass production of new projects offset the impact of partial core shortage, and the share increased against the trend. The company's expected new revenue during the life of new projects has reached a new high. In 2021, the company obtained new energy vehicle projects, thermal management system projects and intelligent driving vision system projects, and the expected new sales revenue accounts for more than 70% (50% in 2021h1). It is expected that with the gradual mitigation of the impact of core shortage and the gradual mass production of new projects, the company's revenue is expected to accelerate growth.
Short term pressure on gross profit margin and increase in exchange loss
The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 26.3%, with a year-on-year rate of -4.0pct, of which the gross profit margin in 2021q4 was 23.3%, with a year-on-year rate of -2.6pct and a month on month rate of -1.5pct, which was mainly affected by the increase of overseas air freight and the price rise of raw materials. The sales expense rate, management expense rate and R & D expense rate of 2021q4 company were 1.4%, 6.7% and 6.2% respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 0.2pct, - 1.1pct and + 0.1pct respectively. The performance of financial expenses was 4000 yuan, with an increase of 33 million yuan / 36 million yuan respectively on a month on month basis, which was mainly affected by the increase of exchange losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations. Affected by the decline of gross profit margin and the increase of expense rate, the profit side of the company is obviously under pressure. With the quarterly repair of overseas demand and the gradual mass production of new orders, the superimposed short-term fluctuation factors are gradually eliminated, and the performance is expected to stabilize and recover.
Accelerating the development of electric intelligence and continuously promoting globalization
The company actively embraces the transformation of electric intelligence, and newly develops aluminum alloy precision die casting products suitable for automobile lightweight, electrification and intellectualization and hydrogen energy vehicles, such as new energy vehicle electric drive (three in one, multi in one), electronic control, on-board charging unit, power distribution unit, battery module, inverter unit, intelligent driving system, thermal management system, automobile structural parts, etc., basically realizing the new energy three electricity system The automatic driving / ADAS image system and thermal management system are fully covered with aluminum alloy precision die-casting products, and continue to expand to automobile structural parts, constantly exquisite technology and enrich product types. The new projects of ehe, Sinochem, Sinochem, Sinochem, Sinochem, Sinochem and other companies are expected to obtain zero income It is estimated that the newly increased sales revenue will account for more than 70% within the service life of the automobile vision system project.
We expect that the global market share of the company's wiper products (including motor housing, connecting rod support, drive arm, etc.) will reach 30%, and the market share of other products will not exceed 10%. There is still much room for improvement. With the steady progress of the company's intelligent manufacturing, the production efficiency brought by the "digital" factory has been greatly improved, and the cost performance advantage has become more and more obvious, which will accelerate the global share and the market share is expected to continue to increase.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company's market share in the field of traditional products and the driving effect of the development of electric intelligent supporting business on the revenue. Taking into account the impact of the gradual repair of overseas demand and the rise of raw material prices, we adjust the profit forecast: it is estimated that the company's revenue in 202223 will be adjusted from 3.78/4.52 billion yuan to 3.94/5.04 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 650 / 79 million yuan to 570 / 790 million yuan, and EPS from 0.75/0.92 yuan to 0.66/0.92 yuan, In 2024, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 6.4 billion yuan and 970 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.12 yuan and closing price of 13.64 yuan / share on March 17, 2022, with PE of 21 / 15 / 12 times. Considering the high growth of electric intelligent business, the "buy" rating was maintained.
Risk tips
The impact of lack of core is higher than expected; The improvement of overseas passenger car demand is lower than expected; Raw material prices rose more than expected.
