\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 511 China National Medicines Corporation Ltd(600511) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Company performance: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 46.47 billion yuan, yoy + 15.1%, and recorded a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, yoy + 26.9%, yoy + 29.7% after deduction. The company’s net profit performance was slightly lower than our expectations, mainly due to the decline in Q4 growth rate. Specifically, Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 achieved operating revenue of 10.35 billion yuan, 11.73 billion yuan, 12.22 billion yuan and 12.18 billion yuan respectively, and yoy + 26.0%, + 25.8%, + 5.5% and + 8.1% respectively; Net profits of 300 million yuan, 470 million yuan, 540 million yuan and 450 million yuan were recorded respectively. Yoy was + 28.4%, + 20.7%, + 39.2% and + 19.7% respectively. After deduction, yoy was + 50.6%, + 24.2%, + 34.1% and + 19.5% respectively. Among them, the net profit scale of Q4 fell, lower than our expectation. It is estimated that it is mainly affected by policy factors such as centralized procurement and DGRs entering the payment period at the end of the year. The cash flow performance is good. In 2021, the cash flow from operating activities was 1.95 billion yuan, yoy + 50.4%. The company issued a dividend plan, which plans to pay a dividend of 7 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend rate of about 2.6% based on yesterday’s closing price.
Hemp essence is stable, and equipment and retail sales grow rapidly: the company’s Hemp essence revenue is yoy + 15.6%, which is relatively stable; Equipment business continued to accelerate, with revenue of yoy + 51.4%, mainly benefiting from the company’s expansion of varieties and hospital coverage; Retail direct sales maintained a rapid growth, with revenue of yoy + 22.1%, which mainly benefited from the good effects on the retail end, such as the cancellation of the 350 meter limit of retail pharmacies in Beijing and the dual channel pilot of medical insurance; The industrial sector was about yoy + 3.4%, mainly affected by centralized mining, and the gross profit margin also decreased by 5.3 percentage points year-on-year to 24.9%, while the gross profit margin of direct selling mode in other sectors was stable, and the gross profit margin of distribution mode increased slightly by 1.4 percentage points.
The comprehensive gross profit margin was stable and the sales expense rate decreased: on the whole, the comprehensive gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 7.8%, unchanged year-on-year. On the expense side, with the expansion of volume procurement and revenue scale, the company’s sales expense rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.0%, and the management expense rate, R & D expense rate and financial expense rate were 0.9%, 0.1% and – 0.04% respectively, with little change year-on-year. In addition, the company obtained an investment income of 280 million yuan in the whole year, an increase of 60 million yuan year-on-year. It is estimated that it is mainly due to the contribution of Yichang humanwell, a joint-stock fine hemp drug company. Overall, the company’s annual net interest rate was 3.8%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, and has basically returned to the normal level.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we expect the net profit of the company in 2022 and 2023 to be 1.93 billion yuan and 2.16 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year yoy of + 10.3% and + 11.6% respectively, EPS of 2.6 yuan and 2.9 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 10 times and 9 times respectively. The company’s performance is stable, the valuation is not high, and the investment suggestion of “buy” is maintained.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic, the impact of centralized mining exceeding expectations, the rise of financing interest rate, etc
