\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 866 Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) )
Performance meets expectations
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.24%; The net profit attributable to the parent before and after non deduction was 763 million yuan and 716 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.54% and 14.40%, which was in line with market expectations. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 1.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company before and after non deduction was RMB 195 million and 186 million, with a year-on-year decrease of about 0.95% and 1.02%. The promotion in 2021q4 contracted and the profit gradually stabilized. The forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 was lowered to 854 million and 966 million yuan (the previous value was 1.091 billion and 1.303 billion yuan), and the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 was increased to 1.091 billion yuan. The EPS in 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 0.90, 1.01 and 1.15 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 24.6, 21.7 and 19.2 times respectively. The company strives to restore 10% growth in revenue in 2022, improve the medium and long-term pattern, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Bread maintained a single digit steady growth
In terms of products, in 2021, the revenue of bread and cakes, moon cakes and zongzi products increased by 6.01%, 13.54% and 61.91% year-on-year, of which the volume and price of bread and cakes increased by 3.47% and 2.45% year-on-year respectively. In terms of subregions, the market revenue of northeast, East, North and southwest mature markets increased by 2.82%, 16.85%, 2.34% and 6.7% year-on-year in 2021; Emerging markets South China, Northwest China and central China increased by 15.48%, decreased by 0.11% and increased by 48.38% year-on-year. The Northeast market has a large base and low-speed growth, and the channel continues to sink; Emerging markets South China and East China continue to expand.
The increase of sales allowance and labor cost put pressure on the net interest rate
In 2021, the annual net profit margin decreased by 3.28%, of which the gross profit margin decreased by 3.69%, mainly due to the increase of labor cost, the increase of promotion allowance and the rise of raw material cost after the withdrawal of social security relief policy. The sales expense and management expense ratio decreased slightly by 0.07pct and increased slightly by 0.08pct respectively.
In 2022, the revenue will strive to resume 10% growth
Due to the influence of multiple factors such as limited production and power supply, channel structure adjustment and superimposed demand slowdown, the company strives to achieve revenue growth in 2021. The company plans to increase revenue and profit by 10% and 10.05% respectively in 2022. The profit plan is more active than that in 2021. It plans to continue to promote capacity expansion and new product R & D investment, and the overall cost rate is expected to remain stable.
Risk warning: the nationalization fails to meet expectations, the risk of raw material price fluctuation, food safety problems and intensified competition.
