\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 318 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a performance announcement. In 2021, the revenue was 1.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.1%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 101618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 29.0%, and the operating profit attributable to the parent was 147961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.1%. The group’s embedded value was 1.40 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.1%, the embedded value of life insurance and health insurance was 876490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.3%, NBV was 37.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 23.6%, and nbvm27 8%, year-on-year -5.5pct.
Liability side: the original premium income of [life insurance and health insurance] was 494011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.0%, of which the agent’s new policy premium was 93.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.9%; At the end of the year, there were V V Food & Beverage Co.Ltd(600300) personal insurance agents, a year-on-year increase of – 41.4%, and the annual average monthly agent was 796000, a year-on-year increase of – 24.5%. In addition, the agent activity rate and per capita monthly income decreased; The remaining marginal amortization of the current period was 82.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.1%, and the remaining marginal amortization at the end of the period was 940733 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 2.0%, mainly due to the increase of surrender, resulting in the difference of withdrawal of – 29.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1808.4%; The segment net profit attributable to the parent company was 59.468 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 37.4%, which was mainly affected by the provision of asset impairment loss, the change of discount rate, the decline of NBV growth rate and other comprehensive effects [property insurance]. The original premium income was 270043 billion yuan, with a year-on-year rate of – 5.5%, accounting for 19.7% of the market and – 1.3pct year-on-year, including 188838 billion yuan of auto insurance, accounting for 69.9% and – 3.7% year-on-year; The comprehensive cost rate was 98.0%, year-on-year -1.1pct, mainly due to the decline of comprehensive cost rate; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.117 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.2%.
Asset side: at the end of the year, the investable assets were 3.92 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.7%. Cash and deposits, creditor’s rights, equity and other categories accounted for 8.1%, 71.7%, 12.9% and 7.3% respectively. The net investment income was 166851 billion yuan, year-on-year + 2.1%, and the net investment income rate was 4.6%, year-on-year -0.5pct; The total investment income was 144086 billion yuan, with a year-on-year rate of – 27.8%, and the total investment income rate was 4.0%, with a year-on-year rate of – 2.2pct, mainly due to the impairment loss of investment assets caused by China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) . It is worth paying attention to: 1) the net and total return on investment has rebounded steadily since the end of H121, indicating that the impact of asset impairment on investment return is becoming smaller and smaller; 2) The balance of real estate investment at the end of the year was 216138 billion yuan, accounting for 5.5%.
Other businesses: Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) performance growth is good, asset quality is stable, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is still 36.336 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.6% under the condition of significantly improving the provision coverage; The net profit of Ping An Securities was 3.829 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.4%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase of + 27.7% in brokerage business under the background of active trading in the capital market; The net profit of Ping An Trust was RMB 229 million, a year-on-year increase of – 90.8%, mainly due to the continuous decline in the scale of financing trust under the regulatory requirements; The net profit of other asset management businesses was 9.894 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.4%.
Investment suggestion: the company announced that the net profit attributable to the parent company was equivalent to 67.8% of our previous forecast, lower than expected. There is still great pressure on the liability side and the probability of improvement in the short term is low, which is the core reason for suppressing the company’s valuation; The asset side margin improved, the provision for asset impairment was sufficient, and the rate of return on investment gradually rebounded. We predict that the company’s profits from 2022 to 2024 will be 112446 billion yuan, 125534 billion yuan and 137477 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.66%, + 11.64% and + 9.51% respectively. The current share price of the company corresponds to 2022e P / ev0 48x, an absolute low in the past five years. We believe that all kinds of negative information have been reflected in the stock price and maintain the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tips: continuous loss of agents, epidemic spread beyond expectations, decline in terminal demand, etc
