\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 862 Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) )
Key investment points:
Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) 3 on the evening of March 15, the annual performance report said that the operating revenue in 2021 was about 3.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.77%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 591 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.25%; The basic earnings per share was 0.42 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.48%.
Aviation composite materials continue to grow rapidly, and other business sectors are still difficult to contribute
In 2021, the annual operating revenue of aviation composite prepreg products was 3.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.08%; The total profit was 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.08%; The net profit was 685 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.60%.
In 2021, the operating revenue of aviation composite prepreg products accounted for 93.3% of the company's operating revenue, and the net profit accounted for 115.9% of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company. Aviation composite prepreg products are the absolute core business of the company.
Other business segments account for a small proportion of main business income, most of which are still in a state of low profit or even loss, and it is still difficult to contribute.
Youcai Baimu achieved an annual operating revenue of 87.02 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.62%, and a total profit of 13.69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 475.59%; The net profit was 12.46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 469.11%.
The annual operating income of Beijing Airlines biology was 13.75 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.02%, and the total profit was - 20.68 million yuan.
The annual operating income of machine tool equipment was 139 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.85%; The total profit was - 30.06 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 7.05 million yuan, but the loss has not been stopped.
The gross profit margin of the company was stable, the net profit margin and roe increased slightly, the operating cash flow was good, and the contract liabilities increased greatly
In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's sales was 30.07%, unchanged year-on-year; The net interest rate was 15.53%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.77pct and deduction of non net interest rate of 14.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.75pct. The main reason for the increase of net interest rate is the prominent scale effect and the obvious decline of the company's management expense rate. In 2021, the management expense rate was 6.69%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.61%.
In 2021, the company's weighted roe was 12.74%, an increase of 2.67pct over last year, and its profitability improved significantly.
In 2021, the company's net operating cash flow was 382 million yuan, an increase of 145.27% year-on-year. The company's operating cash flow was good.
In the 2021 annual report, the company's contractual liabilities were 696 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.36 times, a significant increase.
In 2022, the company's operating revenue increased by 18.2% and total profit increased by 26.49%
The company's annual business objectives are: operating income of 4.5 billion yuan and total profit of 893 million yuan.
1) aviation new materials business (including civil products transformation business): in 2022, aviation new materials business strives to achieve an operating revenue of 4.376 billion yuan and a total profit of 992 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2% and 24.78% respectively.
The company's aviation new materials achieved a revenue of 3.671 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 32.89%, and the planned completion rate was 100.7%; The total profit was 795 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.78%, and the planned completion rate was 92.7%. The total profit of aviation new materials business has not completed the 21-year business target.
In Q4, the company's operating revenue in a single quarter was 957 million, a year-on-year increase of 66.62%, a month on month increase of 4.49%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 23 million, a year-on-year decrease of 23.78% and a month on month decrease of 87.55%.
2) machine tool equipment business: in 2022, the machine tool equipment business will strive to achieve an operating revenue of 108 million yuan and a total profit of - 28 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 2 million, but the loss has not been stopped.
The market growth of new aviation composite materials and large aviation aircraft will be accelerated
Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) is the listing platform of composite core assets under AVIC group. It has always cultivated new strategic businesses in the fields of civil aircraft, commercial aeroengines and so on. The main scientific research progress of the company in 2021 includes:
1) signed the license agreement for the implementation of advanced aviation composite series prepreg technology with the manufacturing Institute, creating conditions for the industrialization of domestic T800 prepreg.
2) successfully selected as the only supplier of COMAC cr929 front fuselage work package; Break through the automatic forming process technology of 13 meter long and double curvature truss, carry out PPV (trial production identification) and ppm (trial production manufacturing) of upper wall panel truss, cooperate with C919 project tail wing optimization design, and cooperate to complete the detailed design of vertical stabilizer.
3) break through many key technologies such as ag600 large-scale reinforced composite wall panel cementation co curing molding technology and reinforced wall panel cementation molding technology, and complete the development, airworthiness tagging and delivery of ailerons, rudders, wing fairings and other products.
4) steadily promote the development of composite parts of commercial aeroengine, and complete the development tasks of composite fan blades, runner sectors, cascades and other products of commercial aeroengine.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the upgrading of aviation equipment accelerated, and the total amount of composite materials and the use of single machines increased significantly. It is in a fast-growing track in the military aircraft industry chain. As the national team of composite materials of AVIC industrial system, the company has fully benefited.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, domestic large aircraft are expected to start mass production. The company has rich technical reserves of aviation composites. It has cooperated with COMAC to carry out a lot of pre research and verification work, and the civil market is expected to open in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
We predict that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.651 billion, 5.8 billion and 7.517 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 805 million, 1.029 billion and 1.366 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 37.91x, 29.64x and 22.34x respectively. The valuation is reasonable, which matches the performance growth rate of the company in the next few years and continues to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1: military aircraft demand and delivery schedule are less than expected; 2: The growth rate of defense expenditure budget is lower than expected; 3: Rising prices of raw materials; 4: Industry competition intensifies; 5: Other main businesses may suffer losses.
