\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 345 Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) )
After 20 years of steady cultivation, the first brand of quick-frozen hot pot ingredients: as a leader in the quick-frozen industry, Anji has developed four businesses: Surimi, meat, noodles and rice, and dishes, with more than 300 SKUs. The dishes business is expected to become a new growth engine. In terms of production, under the origin sales mode, the company's production capacity has been expanded to nearly 580000 tons in 2020. Under the advantages of large-scale procurement and transportation, the product cost performance is better than competitive products, and the price increase in the upward period of cost is smoother than that of competitors. In terms of channels, the company focuses on distribution / small B channels, has a high-quality distribution team in the industry, and provides "close support" to dealers, which has cultivated dealers' high loyalty and cooperation. The income of a single dealer is higher than that of its competitors, supporting the company's nationwide business.
The industry continues to expand and its concentration needs to be improved: in 2020, the market scale of China's frozen food industry was 317.4 billion yuan, and the CAGR in 201120 was 12%, including 139.4 billion yuan of quick-frozen food, which is an important driving force for development. From the perspective of the development rhythm of the industry, the United States and Japan have experienced a growth period of more than 20 years, while China's quick-frozen food has been in force since 2010, and its per capita consumption is far lower than that of developed countries, so it still has development potential. From the perspective of the driving force of industry development, it mainly comes from the development of the supply side. With the further improvement of cold chain logistics, the improvement of catering chain rate and the promotion of catering industrialization under the catalysis of the epidemic, the industry still has sufficient growth power.
Anji products have high cost performance and strong cost control ability: Anji terminal products have high cost performance, and the terminal price of core categories such as fish and shrimp products and pork products is lower than that of competitive products, mainly due to: 1) the output of Anji surimi products accounts for more than 13% (2019), which has a certain procurement advantage; 2) The mode of selling real estate makes the transportation cost rate lower than that of competitors, and ensures the product quality at the same time; 3) The upstream acquired XINHONGYE to strengthen the cost control of raw materials. We believe that the cost leading strategy of quick-frozen food track is the core of building barriers, and andI is expected to benefit in the long term.
"Close support" empowers the channel and has a high-quality distribution team in the industry: Anji has a high-quality quick-frozen distribution team in the industry. The number of dealers is lower than that of competitors, but the income of a single dealer is much higher than that of competitors. This is mainly due to the excellent management system of the company, the shareholders fully delegate power to the management, adhere to the concept of win-win cooperation, and "close support" to dealers for a long time to expand channels and communicate smoothly, It is highly sensitive to terminal changes. An Jing has an average of three business personnel for a dealer, which is better than its competitors. Anjoy dealers have been loyal and highly cooperative, and the platform has been established. This is conducive to the promotion of explosive products. The rapid development of Kwai fresh and fast food can be proved.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: as the leader of quick-frozen food, andI has significant channel and cost advantages. Thanks to the high-quality and loyal distribution team, the traditional main business is expected to grow steadily. New products such as lock fresh clothes and Mr. frozen products may become the new growth engine of the company. We are optimistic about the long-term dividend space of the quick-frozen food track and the competitiveness of the company in attacking cities and land. Considering that the current downstream demand needs to be boosted, We adjusted the net profit of the company in 202123 to 706 / 961 / 1323 million yuan (down 16.0% / 13.8% / 6.2% respectively compared with the previous time), and the current share price corresponding to PE is 39 / 34 / 25 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: food safety risk, consumption intention reduction risk, raw material price rise risk.
