\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event: Recently, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the announcement on the progress of implementing employee equity incentive, shareholding of scientific and technological personnel of GAC Research Institute and synchronous introduction of strategic investors in gac-e’an, a wholly-owned subsidiary, with the following comments:
There is still room for improvement in the valuation of aian: the total financing this time is 2.566 billion yuan, the registered capital of GAC AIAN will increase from 6 billion yuan to about 6.421 billion yuan, and the participants will obtain about 6.55% equity in total. After this round of financing, gac-e’an is valued at 39.2 billion yuan. Gac-e’an will achieve sales of 120155 vehicles in 2021. Estimated at an average price of 120000 yuan, the revenue scale of e’an in 2021 will be about 14.4 billion yuan, corresponding to 2.7 times of PS. Compared with Hong Kong stocks Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile and Weilai automobile, based on the closing price on March 17 and the consistent expectation of income in 2021 (ideal automobile’s announcement data in 2021), the PS of the three companies are 7.0, 6.3 and 5.7 times respectively. Considering that this financing is the first non-public capital increase of ai’an, and then a round of financing will be opened, there is still room for improvement in the future valuation of ai’an.
800 employee stock ownership and mobilization of state-owned capital: 1) the implementation of employee stock ownership. According to the plan, this employee stock ownership covers 679 employees of gac-e’an, which are held by Zhuhai and Egypt peer investment partnership (limited partnership) through the employee stock ownership platform. GAC Research Institute has a total of 115 scientific and technological personnel. Through the employee stock ownership platform, Zhuhai Anxin investment partnership (limited partnership) holds GAC ea’an shares with “upper holding and lower holding”. The total shareholding ratio of the two ESOP platforms is about 4.55%. We believe that the employee stock ownership covers a wide range, provides better incentives for the core employees of ai’an, and stimulates the development vitality of ai’an in terms of mechanism. At the same time, taking into account the scientific and technological personnel of GAC Research Institute, the Institute has consolidated its strong support for the development of ea’an, especially in the field of ICV (intelligent). 2) Introducing the state-owned assets board, the participants also include Chengtong Group, Nanwang kinetic energy and Guangzhou AIAN, which are central enterprises and local state-owned capital respectively, with a total holding ratio of 2%.
Innovation of aian: since its establishment in 2017, AIAN has developed at a phenomenal speed. From 2019 to 2021, the sales volume of aian has reached 42003, 60033 and 120155 respectively. The products cover the medium and high-end electric vehicle market of 1 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 00000 yuan, and has achieved an industry leading position in the two segments of 1 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 50000 yuan (aiony) and 15 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000 + 10000 yuan (aions). Since 2021, ea’an has completed a series of innovations and changes in organizational structure (building an agile organization and simplifying management levels), technology research and development (fast charging, long endurance, electric drive system), marketing mode ( Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) and direct distribution), research, production and marketing integration, etc. We believe that the implementation of employee stock ownership is expected to further stimulate the vitality of the organization, make the unique advantage of the efficiency of state-owned platform + private enterprises, and help the take-off of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: the mixed reform of ai’an is carried out as scheduled, which makes the value of ai’an further explicit. At the same time, the mixed reform will help ai’an take off at the level of mechanism and capital Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) is still the largest shareholder of ea’an. At present, it still holds more than 90% shares. The improvement of the value of ea’an will also feed back Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . We continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term development prospects of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 7.27 billion yuan, 12.89 billion yuan and 15.75 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.70, 1.25 and 1.52 yuan. According to the closing prices of a and h on March 17, 2022, the PE of GAC A shares are 16, 9 and 7 times respectively, and the PE of GAC H shares are 7, 4 and 3 times respectively, maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating of GAC A and GAC H shares.
Risk tip: the industry demand is sluggish, the company’s new models are less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicles is less than expected.
