\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 19 Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) )
Event overview. On March 15, 2022, the company released its 21st Annual Report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 20.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 169.81%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 939 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.48%, deducting 769 million yuan of non attributable net profit, a year-on-year increase of 121.57%. The results of the annual report were in the median value of 908962 million yuan in the performance forecast, and the overall performance was in line with expectations.
The company’s Q4 revenue reached a new high. Revenue and net profit: Q4 achieved a revenue of 6.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 162.38%, a month on month increase of 12.34%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 174 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.16% and a month on month decrease of 37.82%. Benefiting from the high economic demand of the downstream, the revenue continued to grow. Gross profit margin and net profit margin: the company’s Q4 gross profit margin was 10.02%, down 2.78pct at the same time, down 1.82pct at the same time, and the net profit margin was 2.79%, down 3.13pct at the same time, down 2.23pct at the same time. There are two main reasons for the decline of the company’s profitability in the fourth quarter: 1 The abnormal rise in the price of auxiliary material soda ash. The average market price of Q4 liquid alkali in 21 years is about 520 yuan / ton higher than Q3, which is expected to affect the net profit of about 1500 yuan / ton per ton; 2. In the fourth quarter, 80 million year-end bonus was withdrawn at one time. We expect that the net profit per ton will be about 1600 yuan / ton, and the net profit per ton in Q4 of the company in the 21st year will be about 2200 yuan / ton. After deducting the two effects, the net profit per ton of the company will reach 5200 yuan / ton, a slight increase on a ring basis.
Shipments grew rapidly and the market share continued to increase. In the past 21 years, the company shipped 176000 tons of precursors, with a year-on-year increase of 93.22%, including 150000 tons of ternary precursors and 20000 tons of cobalt trioxide. According to the data of xinlune lithium battery, the company’s global market share of ternary precursors and cobalt trioxide in the past 21 years was 26% and 24%, respectively, ranking first in the industry. It is estimated that the shipment volume will be 320000 tons in 22 years, and the market share will reach 30%. The growth rate is higher than the average speed of the industry, and the market share will continue to increase.
Global capacity layout, large-scale advantages and consolidate the leading position. The pace of production expansion of the company’s base in China has accelerated. At the end of 21, the company has a ternary precursor production capacity of 200000 tons / year and a cobalt trioxide production capacity of 30000 tons / year. With the completion of the new 60000 ton precursor project in the southern base, the 180000 ton precursor project under construction is gradually put into operation, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 500000 tons in 23 years. The company announced the investment agreement of Finnish precursor project in December of 21, and plans to establish a production base of high nickel ternary precursor with an annual capacity of 120000 tons with FBC, a subsidiary of Dutch mining group. The first phase of 20000 tons is planned to be put into operation in 24 years. The project is conducive to the company to open up the local automobile supply chain in Europe and improve the international layout.
Integrated production line landing, profitability to a higher level. In 21 years, the southern base was put into operation with supporting mineral smelting facilities, with a net smelting output of 4 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 tons in 22 years. In terms of front-end nickel smelting, the company established a joint venture Indonesia Zhongqing new energy Co., Ltd. in 21 years. The main body of the project is the preparation of high nickel matte by fire method. It is expected that the first phase of the project will be put into operation in Q3 in 22 years, and the high nickel ice can be matched with the precursor in 1:1 in 23 years. Through mineral resource processing, precursor production and recycling, the company has an upward integrated layout, and the net profit per ton is expected to be further improved.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.131, 3.428 and 4.394 billion, increasing by 127.0%, 60.8% and 28.2% at the same time, corresponding to the valuation of 37, 23 and 18 times PE. Considering the continuous improvement of profitability driven by the integrated layout of the company, we maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the price fluctuation of raw materials is abnormal, and the technical route of power battery is changed.
