\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 10.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.30%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.757 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.33%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 3.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.76%.
In 2021q4, the company’s revenue was 2.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.17%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 22.40%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 582 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 21.69%.
The overall performance is slightly lower than expected, and the epidemic has disturbed the growth rate. The company’s 21q4 profit side fell significantly, slightly lower our expectations; The profit declined in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the repeated epidemic, the main business of the company, especially the vaccine of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) was greatly affected, and the profit of kinsay pharmaceutical also declined in the single quarter under the increase of expenses;
Kinsey pharmaceutical grew rapidly, and 21q4 expenses dragged down profits. In 2021, kinsay pharmaceutical’s revenue was 8.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43%, and its net profit was 3.684 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35%; In 2021q4, the revenue of kinsay pharmaceutical was 2.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31%, and the net profit was 642 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 17%. In 2021, the net interest rate of kinsay pharmaceutical reached 44.93%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.44pct. The decline of net interest rate may be caused by the increase of expenses. From the trend of single quarter, the net profit growth rate of Kinsey pharmaceutical in 21q1-q3 was 65%, 70% and 38% respectively. Q1 had a low base in the previous year, and Q2 achieved high growth under the high base in the previous year, showing a strong growth momentum; Q3 is the peak season of growth hormone in summer vacation, with a large base and repeated epidemics in Jiangsu, Hunan, Fujian and other places. It is bright enough to achieve a year-on-year increase of 38%; The profit side of Q4 fell, and the net interest rate of 31.50% in a single quarter was abnormal. We judged and abnormal the situation.
The impact of “local centralized collection” of growth hormone is gradually clarified. On September 30, 2021, the center of Guangdong provincial drug exchange published the volume procurement document of 153 drug groups in Guangdong Province (Exposure Draft), which contains growth hormone. On March 10, 2022, the quotation for the centralized purchase of growth hormone by Guangdong alliance ended. According to the results disclosed by the official, no enterprise won the bid for growth hormone water injection this time. In the growth hormone powder injection group, Kinsey pharmaceutical won the bid at P2 price, with a nominal decrease of 50% in the main specifications and an actual decrease (relative to the previous lowest online price) of about 25% – 30%. As the proportion of powder injection in growth hormone of Kinsey pharmaceutical industry is relatively small, the previous announcement disclosed that it was about 10%, which is not expected to have a significant impact on the overall sales of growth hormone. In the follow-up, we need to observe the use of the company’s water needle after standard abandonment and centralized collection and the prescription of non-public hospitals. In addition, as an exclusive variety of the company, long-acting growth hormone is expected to achieve more rapid growth and its proportion will continue to increase.
Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) affected by the epidemic situation and covid-19 vaccination, it is under pressure for a short time. In 2021, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) revenue was 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year – 16%, and net profit was 244 million yuan, a year-on-year – 40%; In 2021q4, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) achieved a revenue of RMB 257 million, a year-on-year – 28%, and a net profit of 0.11, a year-on-year – 85%. According to our judgment, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) revenue and profit decline is mainly due to covid-19 vaccination and repeated epidemic, which is expected to recover after the epidemic is effectively controlled; The potential new herpes zoster vaccine has completed the phase III clinical trial. We expect that this variety is expected to be produced in the 22nd annual report. After being approved, it will accelerate the growth of Baike Shengke’s performance.
Huakang pharmaceutical industry recovered and real estate declined. In 2021, Huakang pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%; The net profit was 43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.74%. High tech real estate realized an income of 663 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 11%; The net profit was 86 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 39%.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.05 billion yuan, 6.42 billion yuan and 8.13 billion yuan respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 34.4%, 27.1% and 26.5% respectively; EPS is 12.48 yuan, 15.87 yuan and 20.08 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 14x, 11x and 9x respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: growth hormone growth slows down; The progress of new drug research and development is less than expected; The promotion of newly launched products is less than expected; Price reduction of centralized purchase of drugs.
