\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: according to WeChat public official account, recently, by the German Hamelin Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) Research Institute (ISFH) certification, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) combined with the Australian Metallization Technology Company SunDrive, using mass production technology, the conversion efficiency of the full size (M6 size, 274.3cm2) single crystal HJT battery reached 26.07%, further validates the feasibility of the HJT battery production efficiency in the future spanning 26% major barriers.
Double sided microcrystalline PECVD made a major breakthrough and opened the ceiling of hjt’s long-term mass production efficiency. The efficiency (26.07%) is 0.53% higher than the 25.54% released by Maiwei and sundrive last September. The short-circuit current (ISC), open circuit voltage (VOC) and filling factor (FF) of certified batteries have been improved. The PECVD process of this batch of batteries is completed on Maiwei’s latest generation of mass production microcrystalline equipment, which adopts a new high mobility TCO process with double-sided microcrystalline structure combined with PVD. The metallization process is completed by sundrive on its latest generation of Seedless plating pilot equipment, which is optimized in terms of plating speed and height width ratio of grid line. The double-sided microcrystalline PECVD data further verified the feasibility of the mass production efficiency of hjt battery to cross the 26% mark in the future. At present, the company has achieved the first market share of hjt whole line equipment in China and the first market share in the world. The company promotes the industrialization of hjt technology through continuous and efficient research and development.
Microcrystalline PECVD is an important cost reduction and efficiency increase node of hjt in 2022. We pay attention to the breakthrough of mass production efficiency of Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) single-sided microcrystalline PECVD. Single sided microcrystalline PECVD is expected to usher in mass production data earlier than double-sided microcrystalline PECVD. According to Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) disclosure, the expansion scale of hjt in the industry is expected to reach 20-30gw in 2022, a significant increase compared with 8.1gw in 2021. Compared with the expansion scale of hjt, the market pays more attention to the progress of hjt parity. If hjt achieves cost parity with perc within this year, the industry is expected to usher in a large-scale expansion of hjt, the leading manufacturer, in 2023. At present, the cost reduction nodes including smbb and large capacity equipment have been realized. We expect that the hjt parity nodes in 2022 mainly include the mass production of microcrystalline PECVD, the localization of silver slurry, the localization of half bar flakes and silver clad copper. Among them, the mass production data of single-sided microcrystalline PECVD is expected to reach about 25%, which will become the first hjt cost reduction and efficiency improvement node to be realized in 2022. On March 12, 3 Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) 10 size hjt cell was successfully rolled off the production line in the photovoltaic cell workshop of Wujiang factory Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) ‘s hjt phase I production line is 1.2gw in total, which is divided into 600MW microcrystalline PECVD and 600MW amorphous PECVD. It is the world’s first GW level mass production line with 210 size, single track 600MW large capacity and microcrystalline process with mass production efficiency of more than 24.5%. The whole line heterojunction equipment of equipment leader Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) is selected for the project. It is expected that Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) will release the data of small batch mass production in the near future. If the progress and data are good, it is expected to significantly benefit Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) valuation and order expectation, and speed up the progress of hjt parity.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 890 / 14.4 / 2.04 billion, corresponding to pe71 / 44 / 31 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the iteration of photovoltaic technology is less than expected, the research and development of new technology is less than expected, and the market competition intensifies the risk.
