\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 507 Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) )
Key investment points
Event: the company achieved a revenue of 2.519 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 10.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 742 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 694 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 8.49%. Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 563 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.74%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 238 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 209 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.41%.
The price increase promoted the annual income growth, and the Q4 price increase was significantly driven. In terms of products, in 2021, mustard, radish, pickle and other categories achieved revenue of 2.226 billion yuan, 69 million yuan, 159 million yuan and 62 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.73%, – 30.77%, 3.35% and 48.10% respectively. In 2021, the sales volume of the core category mustard decreased by 1% year-on-year to 134800 tons, and the average price increased by 13% year-on-year to 16500 yuan / ton. According to the channel research, it mainly benefited from the indirect price increase of reducing the specification in 2020. The revenue growth rate of 2021q4 company was 18.74%, which accelerated significantly compared with Q2 and Q3, mainly due to: (1) according to the announcement, the company adjusted the ex factory prices of some products on November 12, and the increase range of each category was 3% – 19%, which promoted the faster increase of Q4 average price; (2) The effect of early air advertising gradually appeared, driving the growth of sales; (3) The company’s new low salt products also contributed to some sales growth. By region, the revenue of North China, Northeast China, East China, central China, southwest, northwest, central China and South China in 2021 was 293 million yuan, 108 million yuan, 420 million yuan, 304 million yuan, 210 million yuan, 215 million yuan, 244 million yuan and 692 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 9.85%, 13.80%, 23.19%, 13.16%, – 10.49%, 2.95%, 6.15% and 15.15% respectively. In 2021, the company continued to promote the sinking of channel construction, with a net increase of 382 to 3030 dealers, a year-on-year increase of 14%.
Rising costs put pressure on gross profit margin, and Q4 sales expense rate decreased, releasing profit elasticity. Affected by market supply and demand, the prices of the company’s main raw materials, green vegetable head and pickled mustard semi-finished products, increased by about 80% and 42% year-on-year respectively in 2021, resulting in a year-on-year increase of about 13% in the cost of the company’s main business. In 2021, the company’s comparable gross profit margin was 55.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.29 PCT; The gross profit margin of 2021q4 comparable caliber was 52.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.49 PCT. Under comparable standards, the company’s sales expense rate increased by 6.28 PCT to 22.47% in 2021, mainly due to the investment of 240 million yuan in strengthening brand publicity; In 2021q4, the sales expense rate of comparable caliber decreased by 7.59 PCT to 8.28%, which promoted the release of profit elasticity in the fourth quarter. Affected by the pressure of gross profit margin and the increase of sales expense rate, the net profit margin of the company decreased by 4.73 PCT year-on-year in 2021; In the fourth quarter, the net profit margin of 2021q4 increased by 7.84 PCT year-on-year due to the sharp decline of sales expense rate.
In 2022, the price increase will drive the revenue growth, the cost will fall, and the profit elasticity can be expected. According to the financial budget announcement of the company in 2022, it is estimated that the revenue in 2022 will increase by 15% year-on-year to 2.896 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin will increase by 6.64 PCT to 59% year-on-year. The revenue growth will mainly come from the contribution of direct price increase at the end of 2021. At the same time, the effect of early product promotion investment is expected to gradually appear, and the release of production capacity of northeast radish base also contributes to some increment. At the beginning of 2022, the price of green vegetable head acquired by the company fell back to the normal level, superimposed with the contribution of price increase, and the annual profit elasticity is expected to be greatly released.
Profit forecast: according to the company’s annual report and 2022 financial budget announcement, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.902 billion yuan, 3.280 billion yuan and 3.669 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.033 billion yuan, 1.253 billion yuan and 1.428 billion yuan respectively (before adjustment, it will be 993 billion yuan and 1.250 billion yuan in 20222023), and the EPS will be 1.16, 1.41 and 1.61 yuan respectively, corresponding to 26 times, 21 times and 19 times of PE, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: repeated global epidemics and slowing economic growth; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Channel development fails to meet expectations; New product promotion failed to meet expectations
