\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Event: on March 16, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 10.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.757 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.33%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 3.742 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.76%.
Kinsey pharmaceutical: growth hormone has a good performance all year round. The core subsidiary kinsay Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. performed well, with a revenue of 8.198 billion (year-on-year + 41.28%, the same below) and a net profit of 3.684 billion (+ 33.46%) in 2021; In 2021q4, the revenue was 2.037 billion yuan (+ 31.11%), the net profit was 642 million yuan (- 16.79%), and the R & D expenditure increased significantly. The net interest rate of Kinsey in 2021 is 44.93% (-2.63pp). With the normalization of the epidemic situation and the gradual adaptation of the sales model, the new patients gradually recover, and the growth hormone is expected to continue to maintain a high-speed growth; In the future, with the development of Pediatrics, gynecology and obstetrics, oncology and other fields, Kinsey pharmaceutical is expected to maintain steady growth for a long time.
Other sectors: run on covid-19 vaccination affected by 100g vaccine. In 2021, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) achieved revenue of 1.202 billion yuan (year-on-year – 16.13%, the same below); The net profit was 244 million yuan (- 40.48%), which was related to the run on covid-19 vaccination, resulting in the restriction of routine vaccination. In 2021, Huakang pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 642 million (+ 10.13%); The net profit was 43 million yuan (+ 2.18%). In 2021, the income of high-tech real estate was 663 million (- 8.56%); The net profit was 86 million yuan (- 37.18%).
The sales rate has decreased and the R & D investment has increased significantly. In 2021, the company’s sales expense was 3.064 billion yuan (+ 18.65%), and the sales rate was 28.51% (- 1.60pp), which was mainly related to the epidemic situation of growth hormone infection and limited vaccine promotion in the second half of the year. The management fee was 633 million (+ 32.24%), the management rate was 5.89% (+ 0.33pp), and the salary of employees increased. The R & D cost is 885 million yuan (+ 86.36%), and the R & D rate is 8.23% (+ 2.70pp). The company actively carries out the development of growth hormone indications and vaccine research and development. In 2021, the inventory balance was 4.36 billion yuan, accounting for 19.36% of assets (+ 1.48pp). Accounts receivable and notes receivable were 1.569 billion yuan, accounting for 14.60% of revenue (- 3.03pp).
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: referring to the company’s performance in 2021, we expect the company’s operating revenue to be 14.347 billion yuan, 17.962 billion yuan and 22.094 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024 (the value before 202223 forecast is 14.0 billion yuan and 16.7 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 33.50%, 25.20% and 23.00%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.299 billion yuan, 6.654 billion yuan and 8.162 billion yuan respectively (the value before 202223 forecast was 4.915 billion yuan and 6.147 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 41.02%, 25.58% and 22.66%, corresponding to EPS of 13.09, 16.44 and 20.17 yuan. The company is a leader in the growth hormone industry. Under the background of centralized mining and landing of Guangdong alliance, it still benefits from the high prosperity of the industry. It is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth and maintain the “buy” rating in 2022.
Risk tip: the risk of intensified competition for growth hormone, the risk that the progress of pipeline under research is lower than expected, and the risk of drug bidding and price reduction.
