\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 866 Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021: the company achieved a revenue of 6.336 billion yuan in 2021, yoy + 6.24%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 763 million yuan, yoy-13.54%; Deduct 716 million yuan of non net profit, yoy-14.40%.
The demand for bread in Q4's main business has recovered significantly, and the momentum in East and central China is good. 21q4 revenue was 1.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 195 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -0.95%; Deduct non net profit of 186 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 1.02%. 1) In terms of regions, the revenue of North China, Northeast China, East China, central China, southwest, northwest and South China in the whole year of 21 years was + 2.3%, + 2.8%, + 16.9%, + 48.4%, + 6.7%, - 0.1% and 15.5% respectively year-on-year. The growth momentum of central China, East China and South China is good, which is the main engine of growth. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of 21q4 was + 4.1%, - 2.1%, + 24.9%, + 16.3%, + 7.2%, + 5.9%, + 10% respectively. The decline in Northeast China was mainly due to the influence of 21q4 weather and epidemic situation. East and central China maintained stable growth and accelerated month on month compared with Q3. 2) By product: the revenue of 21q4 bread was 1.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.9%, a month on month increase of 3.8pct, and the demand for bread recovered significantly, mainly because the revenue recognized at the wrong time of the Mid Autumn Festival affected the overall revenue performance of Q4. 3) Continuous channel expansion: by the end of 21 years, the company had 895 dealers, with a net increase of 115 year-on-year.
The epidemic relief of Social Security + low return rate lead to high profit base + rising raw material prices lead to pressure on the profit side of the company. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 11.66%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.71pct and a month on month increase of + 0.11pct; Among them, the sales expense rate is 8.48%, and the gross sales difference is 17.93%, with a year-on-year difference of -0.75pct. Considering that it is mainly caused by the impact of phased social security relief policies in the same period last year + the rise in the price of some raw materials + the increase of promotion efforts in the current period and the increase of discount rate. According to the feedback of channel research, the company raised the price of some products at the end of last year. The transmission speed of price increase in different regions is different. On the whole, we expect that the price increase of 22q2 can be transmitted in place and reflected on the statement end. The management expense rate was 2.3%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.04pct.
The medium and long-term logic of the short-term insurance track is clear, the company's new production capacity has been put into operation, and the moat of the supply chain has been deepened. Short term bread meets the consumption trend of consumers' health needs and is a track with medium and long-term growth. At the same time, the company's China insurance products are still being distributed this year, and it is expected to make new incremental contributions on the revenue side. In terms of production capacity, the layout of the company's production bases across the country has been improved. It is expected that the production capacity of Liaoning Shenyang, Jilin Changchun, Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, Guangxi and other places will be released in succession in 22-23 years.
Investment suggestion: the short-term bread industry still has growth. It is optimistic about Taoli to establish medium and long-term barriers and expand market share through management and supply chain. In the medium term, the company's capacity expansion in many places has been promoted step by step, and the barriers at the end of the supply chain have been strengthened; In the long run, the company can improve its profitability with scale effect after completing the layout of production bases across the country. According to the annual report of the company in 2021 and the future plan, we adjusted the profit forecast. From 2022 to 2024, the revenue was 7.08 billion yuan, 8.05 billion yuan and 9.13 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 11.8%, 13.6% and 13.4%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 870 million yuan, 1.0 billion yuan and 1.16 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 13.7%, 15.4% and 15.3%, and the EPS was 0.91, 1.05 and 1.21 yuan respectively (0.97 and 1.07 yuan in the previous 22-23 years), corresponding to the current PE of 24x, 21x and 18x, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the development of new products and channel regions is less than expected, and the risk of food safety events.
