\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 19 Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the revenue was 20.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 169.81%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 939 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 123.48%; 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 6.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 162.38%, a month on month increase of + 12.35%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 174 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.16%.
The revenue and shipment volume of each sector increased significantly, and the overall performance was in line with expectations. The 21-year revenue of the ternary precursor was 15.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 170.81%, the gross profit margin was 12.26%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9pct, the shipment volume exceeded 150000 tons, and the market share increased to 26%. With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and energy storage markets and the successive implementation of industrial policies in various countries, the demand for upstream cathode material precursors will continue to increase. The revenue of Co3O4 in the 21st year was 4.041 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 180.15%, the gross profit margin was 9.17%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.39 PCT, the shipment volume exceeded 20000 tons, and the market share increased to 24%. With the diversification of consumer electronics, the demand for upstream core material Co3O4 will continue to increase. The company's net profit is within the scope of performance forecast, which is in line with expectations as a whole.
The production capacity continued to expand and the profitability improved. In the fourth quarter, the net profit per ton fell due to the rise in the price of some auxiliary materials. By the end of 2021, the company had formed a production capacity of about 200000 tons / year of ternary precursor and 30000 tons / year of cobalt trioxide, leading the world. The company will continue to expand at a high speed in the future. According to the company's current capacity planning, we expect the precursor capacity in 22 / 23 years to be 320000 / 460000 tons respectively; At the same time, the company actively distributes upstream nickel resources and continues to improve profitability. The rapid rise in the cost of 21q4 auxiliary materials has led to a decline in the company's net profit per ton. If this impact is added back, the company's net profit per ton of 21q4 can still be maintained at more than 5000 yuan.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will realize an income of 40.263/50.807/58.646 billion yuan in 22-24 years, a year-on-year increase of + 100.6% / + 26.2% / + 15.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.920/3.233/4.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 104.5% / + 68.4% / 32.6%, and EPS was 3.17/5.34/7.08 yuan.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles does not meet expectations; The supply and price of raw materials fluctuate greatly; Industry competition intensifies.
