\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Key investment points
New type of plating seed layer + micro crystal efficiency: hjt + 26.07%
1) according to the official account of the company in March 17th and ISFH certification in Germany, the SunDrive efficiency of the combined SunDrive can reach 26.07% on the full scale single crystal heterojunction battery by mass production process. Provide feasibility for hjt to cross the 26% mark in the future.
2) the battery is applied to Maiwei's mass production PECVD equipment (adopting the new TCO process of double-sided microcrystalline + PVD with high mobility), which is completed by sundrive on its latest seedless layer electroplating pilot equipment (optimized in electroplating speed and grid line aspect ratio). The efficiency is 0.53% higher than the 25.54% released in September 2021, and the short-circuit current, open circuit voltage and filling factor are improved.
3) at present, the photovoltaic hjt industry is dominated by amorphous PECVD equipment, and the average conversion efficiency of mass production is around 24.5%. We expect that 2022 will be the first year of hjt microcrystalline technology. With the introduction of microcrystallization process, the mass production conversion efficiency of hjt battery is expected to exceed 25% (single-sided microcrystalline) and 25.5% (double-sided microcrystalline). With the improvement of superimposed metallization process in the future, hjt efficiency is expected to march to 26%.
In 2021, the net profit increased by 63% year-on-year and the gross profit margin increased by 4 percentage points; Expected performance of hjt equipment in 2022
1) performance in 2021: revenue of RMB 3.1 billion, year-on-year + 35.4%, net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 640 million, year-on-year + 63%, exceeding the medium track of performance forecast; The gross profit margin was 38.3% (YoY + 4.3pct) and the net profit margin was 20.3% (YoY + 0.4pct). The gross profit margin of the company increased significantly.
2) significant increase in R & D Investment: in 2021, the company's R & D expenses reached 331 million yuan (accounting for? 10.7% of revenue), a year-on-year increase of 100%, and the number of R & D personnel reached 899, a year-on-year increase of + 131%. The company continued to increase in the field of hjt equipment and laser equipment.
3) there are abundant orders on hand, and it is expected that hjt equipment will become a new growth point of performance in 2022: as of September 2021, the company's hjt equipment orders on hand have reached 1.8 billion (according to the company's announcement). In 2021, the company has obtained hjt equipment order revenue, and obtained hjt equipment orders such as Anhui Huasheng, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) , REC, which will provide an important growth point for the company's performance in 2022.
Hjt equipment: the compound growth rate of the industry exceeds 80%; The company's 2.8 billion hjt fixed increase issuance has been completed and looks forward to another breakthrough
1) market space of hjt equipment orders: it is estimated that the market space of hjt equipment orders is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 80% from 2020 to 2025. If the net interest rate remains 20% (8 billion net profit), 25 times PE will be given. It is estimated that the reasonable total market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan! We judge that the industry's leading market share is expected to exceed 50%, and the market value is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the future.
2) the company's fixed increase of 2.8 billion yuan has been successfully completed, which is used for projects with an annual output of 40 sets of PECVD, PVD and automation equipment. The issue price is 645 yuan / share. Among them, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) which is an important manufacturer of downstream hjt batteries was allocated with a fixed increase of 100 million yuan and an additional lock period of 12 months Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) previously announced a total investment of 3 billion yuan to expand 5gwhjt Battery + components in the next five years. The project is expected to be carried out in three phases.
Profit forecast: optimistic about the company's strategic position and high growth in the future development of photovoltaic and semiconductor industries. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 880 / 13 / 18 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37% / 48% / 38%, corresponding to 68 / 46 / 33 times of PE. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the propulsion speed of heterojunction battery does not meet the expectation; Photovoltaic demand is less than expected; The downstream expansion was less than expected.
