\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
Event: on March 17, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, yoy + 83.8%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.25 billion yuan, yoy + 114.4%, a contract liability of 658 million yuan at the end of the period, a decrease of 194 million yuan compared with the end of Q3, and an increase of 290 million yuan compared with the end of 20; In 2021, Q4 achieved 1.36 billion yuan, yoy + 44.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 280 million yuan, yoy + 2.1%
“Shede” and “Tuopai” are driven by two wheels, and the scale effect of each index is significant. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 77.81%. With an increase of 1.94 PCT, the sales / management expense ratio was 17.63% / 12.79% respectively, and decreased by 2.23/0.54 PCT respectively. The scale effect was significant in the process of rapid income growth. In 2021, the company’s liquor business achieved a revenue of 4.58 billion yuan, yoy + 94.8%, of which the sales volume of shede series was 8054 kiloliters, yoy + 60.1%, and the sales volume of Tuopai series was 31082 kiloliters, yoy + 192%. The two wheel drive of “shede” and “Tuopai” realized the rapid growth of sales scale in the process of national expansion. Focusing on the strategy of “focusing on Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong and Henan, improving the northeast, northwest and breaking through the East and South China”, the company has accelerated the national layout of the brand. At present, the company’s traditional strong markets such as Sichuan, Shandong and northeast have benign increment, stable price and reasonable inventory. Since 2021, the company has further tilted its resources to the East and South China markets with large sub high-end capacity. At present, it has established a number of model cities around Taihu Lake, Hunan and other regions. In 2021, there will be a net increase of 491 dealers (1036 new dealers will be added in 2021, 545 will be withdrawn, some illegal dealers will be dismissed, and the quality of dealer team will be continuously improved). In 2022, the national layout of dual brands will be gradually promoted.
The channel thrust was strengthened, and the medium and high-grade ton price rose. At present, the company has formed a series of old wine collections with a price of 1000 yuan, a price of 8001000 yuan, a price of 600 yuan for wisdom, 500 yuan for crystal, 400 yuan for taste, 200 yuan for the way, and a product matrix of 50-80 yuan for six grains and T68. Among them, taste is the core single product of the company. In 2020, the company adjusted the market of taste by taking measures such as quantity control and price protection, and the price was raised from about 280 yuan to more than 350 yuan, Channel profits recovered significantly, realizing the recovery of market dynamic sales and the decline of terminal inventory. In 2021, the company achieved sales revenue of 3.87 billion yuan, yoy + 82%, ton price of 335200 yuan / ton and yoy + 10%, reflecting the continuous improvement of shede series product structure. The sales revenue of low-grade wine was 700 million yuan, yoy + 219%, and ton price of 25500 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the same period last year. It is expected that the taste willing will continue to grow rapidly in 2022. Tuopai liuliang and T68 conform to the industry trend of rapid development of “high-speed light bottle wine” at the price of less than 100 yuan. Driven by high channel profits, the company’s Tuopai series products are also expected to maintain rapid growth.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the trend of structural expansion of the industry will remain unchanged in 2022. The company adheres to the “old wine strategy”, and the hot sauce and wine accelerates the maturity of the price range of Lihe Technology (Hunan) Co.Ltd(300800) yuan. It is expected that the volume increase brought by the expansion of the price range + rapid national layout will continue. Based on the annual report, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 to be 1.8/24/31 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS to 5.48/7.34/9.47 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price to be 33 / 24 / 19 times respectively, Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects consumer demand, resulting in lower prices and inventories of leading products than expected; The macro-economy is less than expected, resulting in lower than expected demand for secondary high-end prices; Intensified market competition causes the company’s sales progress to be lower than expected; Food safety accidents, etc.
