\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
Event: on the evening of March 17, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 198.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; The non net profit deducted was 1.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 215.32%.
HPV vaccine and IVD sectors were driven by two wheels, and the net profit attributable to the parent achieved explosive growth. 1) Vaccine: in 2021, the company’s vaccine sector achieved a revenue of 3.363 billion yuan (year-on-year + 288.49%), a gross profit margin of 92.55%, and the proportion of revenue increased to 58%, mainly due to the continuous and rapid volume of bivalent HPV vaccine. 2) In vitro diagnosis: IVD business contributed 2.339 billion yuan in revenue in 2021 (year-on-year + 58.97%), with a gross profit margin of 76.17%; The traditional in vitro diagnostic reagent business has rebounded with the recovery of hospital outpatient service. In addition, due to the repeated catalysis of the global epidemic, the company’s covid-19 raw material sales and overseas testing reagent exports have increased rapidly, thickening the performance of IVD sector.
The production and marketing of 2-valent HPV are booming, and it is expected to further accelerate the volume in 22 years. 2021 is the company’s second price HPV Xinkening ® In the second year of listing, 163 batches were issued, and the sales volume reached 10.1 million, which has effectively covered about 2500 district and county CDCs and about 18000 community hospitals in China. At present, the total production capacity of the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine has reached 30 million pieces / year (20 million vials + 10 million pre encapsulated vials). Since it was approved, the bivalent HPV vaccine has maintained a rapid and large-scale trend. Since 2020, Xiamen, Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) , Jinan and other places have issued policies to promote the free vaccination of HPV vaccine for school-age women, which is conducive to further improve the awareness and vaccination rate of HPV vaccine. In the next few years, domestic HPV vaccine is expected to usher in accelerated mass production. In October 21, the company’s 2-valent HPV vaccine passed the PQ certification of who, which also helped to further open the international market.
The expense rate decreased steadily, and the accounts receivable increased significantly year-on-year. In 2021, the company’s sales expense was 1.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.66%, mainly due to the increase of vaccine promotion service fee and salesperson’s salary; The sales expense rate was 29.40%, basically the same as that in 2020. The rate of administrative expenses was 3.17%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.77pp; The financial expense rate was 0.09%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.39pp. At the end of 2021, the company’s accounts receivable and notes were 2.268 billion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the revenue, with a significant increase of 9.8 percentage points year-on-year. It is expected that it is mainly caused by the sales of two price HPV vaccine.
R & D investment continued to increase, and the pipeline under research was promoted in an orderly manner. In 2021, the company invested 682 million yuan in R & D, a year-on-year increase of 116.91% over 2020, accounting for 11.86% of the total revenue. The pipeline under research of the company is progressing smoothly: 1) 9-valent HPV: the phase III clinical trial of the company’s 9-valent HPV vaccine is progressing smoothly. The main clinical trial has completed the enrollment and vaccination, and the visit is ongoing. The head-to-head clinical trial with jiadaxiu 9 has completed the on-site work, and the young bridging clinical trial has also been started and completed the enrollment. The clinical progress is in the first echelon in China; 2) Chickenpox vaccine: the freeze-dried live attenuated chickenpox vaccine has obtained the phase III clinical trial research report. The new freeze-dried live attenuated chickenpox vaccine (vzv-7d) has completed the phase IIa clinical study and is carrying out the phase IIB clinical trial; 3) Nasal spray of influenza virus vector covid-19 pneumonia vaccine has completed phase II clinical trial and is carrying out phase III clinical trial overseas; 4) The clinical trial of 20 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine was approved and made rapid progress among similar pcv20 products.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: considering that the release of 2-price HPV production capacity is expected to bring about a double increase in revenue and profit margin, we expect the company’s operating revenue to be 9.724 billion yuan, 12.801 billion yuan and 15.266 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 69%, 32% and 19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.430 billion yuan, 4.912 billion yuan and 5.898 billion yuan respectively (the predicted value before 20222023 was 2.966 billion yuan and 3.882 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 70%, 43% and 20%. As one of the leading companies in HPV vaccine research and development, it will continue to benefit from the “beautiful price” of HPV vaccine research and development in the next 3 years.
Risk warning events: the risk of intensified competition and price reduction of HPV vaccine, the risk that the R & D progress is less than expected, the risk that the prediction premise is less than expected, resulting in deviation in the calculation of market capacity, the case risk of adverse reaction events of vaccine, and the risk of policy and supervision.
