\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 19 Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021] and achieved an operating revenue of 20.072 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 170%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 939 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 769 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122%. Among them, the operating revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 6.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 162% and a month on month increase of 12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 174 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month on month decrease of 37%. EPS1. 64 yuan.
The ternary precursor is a global leader, actively expanding production and consolidating its position in the industry. According to xinlune information, in 2021, the market share of the company’s ternary precursor increased to 26, and the market share of cobalt trioxide reached 24%, both of which remained the first in the industry. In 2021, with the completion of 60000 ton precursor raising and investment projects in the western base and the gradual production of 180000 ton precursor projects under construction in the southern base, the company has built a ternary precursor production capacity of 200000 tons / year by the end of the year. In addition, the company has started the construction of Indonesia nickel resource base. In the future, the company will continue to expand its production capacity on the basis of the existing production capacity. It is expected that the production capacity of the company will exceed 500000 tons by 2023. Through capacity expansion and promoting industrial integration, on the one hand, the company can ensure the safety of the supply of main raw materials, on the other hand, it can effectively reduce the comprehensive production cost, improve the profitability of products and enhance the competitive advantage of the company.
The product structure has been continuously optimized and the customer structure has been gradually enriched. With the development of relevant technologies and the integration of vehicle platform functions, the development trend of high nickel ternary lithium battery is becoming more and more obvious. At present, the company is deeply engaged in high nickel, doping, pre sintering, recycling and other technologies. During the reporting period, cobalt free single crystal products and a variety of high nickel products have made breakthroughs. In 2021, the company’s ternary precursor 8 series and above products accounted for nearly 50%, high voltage and doped Co3O4 above 4.45v accounted for more than 80%, and the Chinese market share of high voltage Co3O4 materials exceeded 50%. The company’s high-end products continue to be optimized, and the shipment volume is at the leading level in the industry. The company has a high-quality, diversified and multi-level customer base, including LG Chemical, Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Tesla, Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , beiteri, L & F, Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , Tianjin BAMO and Samsung SDI. It has fully entered the world’s leading lithium-ion battery industry chain and is the core supplier of the supply chain of leading enterprises.
With the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the energy storage market is expected to become a new growth pole. According to canalys data, the global sales of electric vehicles reached 6.5 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 109%, accounting for 9% of all passenger vehicle sales. With the successive implementation of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry policies, the market demand of new energy automobile industry will continue to increase. In addition, in 2021, the demand for large power stations in the energy storage market rose, and the construction of multiple large energy storage projects by overseas energy storage system integrators began. According to Xinlu information data, the global energy storage battery output in 2021 was 87.2gwh, a year-on-year increase of 149%. With the guidance on accelerating the development of new energy storage issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the national energy administration, the energy storage field will become another growth pole driving the demand for lithium-ion batteries in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.26 yuan, 4.85 yuan and 6.35 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 60% in the next three years. As the company is a ternary precursor and a leader in Co3O4 industry, its production capacity has been steadily expanded and its integrated layout is leading. “Hold” rating is given for the first time.
Risk warning: technical route substitution risk; Oversupply leads to the risk of intensified industry competition; Risk of shortage of raw materials or price fluctuation; Capacity expansion or less than expected; Overseas operation risk; Exchange rate change risk.
