\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: according to WeChat public official account, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) and SunDrive, Australia’s Metallization Technology Company, use the mass production technology to achieve 26.07% conversion efficiency on full-size single crystal HJT batteries.
M6 full-scale mass production process breaks through the conversion efficiency of 26.07%, and verifies the feasibility of mass production of heterojunction up to 26% in the future
Certified by the authoritative testing organization Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) Research Institute (ISFH) in Hamelin, Germany, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) using the self-developed hjt mass-produced microcrystalline equipment and sundrive electroplating process, the conversion efficiency on the full-size M6 (274.3cm2) single crystal hjt battery has reached 26.07%, which is 0.53% higher than the world record of 25.54% conversion efficiency jointly released by the two sides in September 2021. The short-circuit current (ISC) of the certified battery The open circuit voltage (VOC) and fill factor (FF) are improved. Technically, the PECVD process of this batch of batteries adopts double-sided microcrystalline structure (efficiency enhancement), combined with PVD’s new TCO process with high mobility (efficiency enhancement). The metallization process is completed by sundrive on its latest generation of Seedless layer electroplating pilot equipment (cost reduction), and the electroplating speed and the height width ratio of grid line are optimized.
The new technology of hjt industrial chain is progressing smoothly. It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt in 2022
The cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt will accelerate in 2022. We expect to level with perc’s manufacturing cost per W by the end of 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of cost reduction and efficiency increase in 2022. (1) Microcrystalline efficiency improvement: n-PLANE microcrystalline technology in 2022 and P-plane microcrystalline technology in 2023. Customers delivered in Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) 2022 have reserved space for P-plane microcrystalline. Most customers only need equipment transformation from microcrystalline n to microcrystalline P. The mass production efficiency is expected to reach 25.5% by the end of 2022. We expect that at least one line in the industry will have a mass production efficiency of 26% by the end of 2023. (2) Silver slurry: ① smbb: at present, the production line of Huasheng is 9bb, and the unit consumption of silver slurry is 170180mg (166 specification). After Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) the smbb equipment entered the plant in March 2022, the unit consumption of silver slurry decreased to 150160mg (166 specification). ② Silver clad copper: we expect to realize the industrialization of imported silver clad copper by the middle of 2022, and the Q3 penetration rate will gradually increase. At present, the silver content of imported silver clad copper slurry is 44%, the domestic silver content is 60%, and the silver content is expected to be less than 30% in the future. ③ Domestic low-temperature silver slurry: in terms of pure silver slurry, we expect the domestic penetration rate to exceed 50% in 2022q2. ④ Copper electroplating is progressing smoothly: the company’s copper electroplating R & D is progressing faster than expected, and it is one of the enterprises with the fastest progress in copper electroplating. There are two difficulties in copper electroplating, one is how to realize cheap graphics, the other is how to do electroplating process. The advantage of copper electroplating lies in the graphic technology accumulated in screen printing. (3) Wafer slicing: TOPCON currently focuses on 170 and 165 microns, while hjt realizes mass production of 150 microns. With the launch of 600MW half wafer line of Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) 210 and 182 and the end of installation and commissioning of the client, the mainstream of silicon wafer in the market will transition from 150 microns to 130 and 120 microns. (4) Target indium removal is under research and development: the company’s equipment has been able to reduce the use of ITO indium from 130mg to 90mg (166). In the future, with azo replacing half of ITO, it can be reduced to 45mg. At that time, the target cost will be about 0.02 + yuan / W, 50% lower than the original cost of 0.04 + yuan / W.
The newly added capacity of hjt increases rapidly, and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) as a leader will benefit fully
Looking forward to the new capacity of hjt in the future, we expect that the new capacity of hjt will be about 20-30gw in 2022, and all players in the industry will start the large-scale production expansion of hjt in 2023. Under the neutral assumption, the production expansion of the industry in 2023 can reach more than 50gw. We judge that the production expansion scale of hjt in 2022 is about 20-30gw. Assuming that longyi Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) city accounts for 70% +, that is, the company will have about 20gwhjt orders in 2022, that is, the main PV industry can reach 8 billion yuan of hjt orders.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as the leader of hjt whole line equipment with first mover advantage, the company fully benefits from the accelerated production expansion of hjt battery, and the long-term layout of Pan semiconductor field opens a broad growth space. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 919 / 13.99 / 2.169 billion, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price will be 68 / 45 / 29 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the R & D of new products is less than the market expectation, and the expansion of hjt equipment is less than the market expectation.
