\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 660 Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) )
Key investment points
Overview of the company's performance: Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 6.45 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 5.22% / + 14.98% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 550 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of - 33.41% / - 37.30% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 440 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of - 39.02% / - 44.94% respectively. For the whole year of 2021, Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) achieved an operating revenue of 23.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.57%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.97%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.816 billion yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of + 22.22%.
Q4's performance was lower than our expectations, mainly due to the increase in exchange losses and the impact of the rise in sea freight / soda ash prices. 1) 2021q4 Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) revenue growth is better than the industry. According to marklines data, the global auto industry has achieved wholesale sales of 20.1 million vehicles in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of - 14.21% and a month on month increase of + 11.45%. Fuyao is better than the industry as a whole. In 2021, the operating revenue of automotive glass was 21.38 billion yuan, the sales volume was 118.46 million square meters, and the unit price was 180.5 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year increase of + 3.82%. 2) The gross profit margin of Q4 was 23.58%, with a significant decline on a month on month basis, mainly due to the change of accounting standards, and the transfer of shipping expenses from sales expenses to operating costs. The annual gross profit margin was 35.9%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.60pct (after adjustment), mainly due to the increase of 231 million yuan in sea freight and 107 million yuan in soda ash price, which affected the gross profit margin of -0.98 / - 0.45pct respectively. 3) In terms of period expenses, Q4 sales / management expenses were -11.99pct / - 3.43pct month on month, and the expense rate changed to -3.23% / 5.96%, mainly due to the change of accounting standards. Based on the gross profit margin - sales and management expense rate (excluding the impact of changes in accounting standards), Q4 is 20.85%, with a month on month ratio of -5.24pct / - 1.39pct respectively. Q4 financial expense ratio was 5.53%, mainly due to the increase of exchange loss and the decrease of interest income caused by the appreciation of RMB. The exchange loss in 2021h2 was 356 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 194 million yuan.
Benefit from the popularization of sky curtain + high value-added functions to improve the unit price of steam glass, increase the global share with cost advantage, and open up long-term growth space: 1) industry end: with the trend of automobile lightweight and intelligence, the penetration rate of sky curtain gradually increases, "beauty bonus" + weight reduction; The penetration rate of HUD front block, dimming, glass antenna, sound insulation and other high value-added functions continues to increase, and the value of automobile glass single vehicle is expected to increase by 100% - 150%, with great potential. 2) : with the advantages of production side and management side, Fuyao is expected to seize the share of competitive enterprises with cost-effective products and further improve the global market share. 3) Taking Germany fysam as the springboard, Fuyao entered the aluminum bright trim industry and expanded its business boundary. Further integrate automotive glass products, enhance large-scale advantages and open a new incremental space.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the rise of upstream raw material prices, the increase of shipping costs, international geopolitical uncertainty and other negative factors, the company is facing certain cost pressure in the short term. We will reduce the net profit attributable to the parent company from 5 / 5.9 billion yuan to 3.2/4 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, and it is expected to be 5.1 billion yuan in 2024; The corresponding EPS is 1.21/1.55/1.94 yuan and the corresponding PE is 31 / 24 / 20 times. Maintain the "buy" rating of Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) .
Risk tip: the recovery progress of global chip shortage is lower than expected; Exchange rate fluctuations exceeded expectations.
