\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event description
The company announced that the company plans to invest 9.102 billion yuan to build and implement the expansion project of Fenjiu 2030 technical transformation of original liquor production and storage (phase I). The project covers an area of 1932 Mu and the construction period is planned to be three years. After the completion of the project, the company is expected to increase the annual output of original wine by 51000 tons and the energy storage of original wine by 134400 tons.
Event comments
Expand the original wine production and energy storage to escort the medium and long-term development. At present, the company’s original liquor production capacity is about 100000 tons (including the main plant + leasing Zhongfen liquor industry). With the continuous optimization and adjustment of the company’s product structure, the demand for high-quality production capacity is increasing. According to the medium and long-term development strategy of Fen Liquor and the 14th five year plan, the company needs to continue to expand the production and storage capacity construction of original liquor. After the completion of the project, the production and storage capacity of Fen Liquor will be effectively improved. This expansion is not only the pursuit of scale, but also the overweight of quality, the support of brand and the upgrading of competitiveness. The improvement of the production and storage capacity of the company will also directly contribute to the high-quality development of Fen Liquor.
The operation and management were stable, and the company continued its high growth. According to the recently released performance announcement, from January to February 2022, it is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35% +, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% +. The main reason is that in 2022, the company continued to gather brand potential energy, comprehensively improved operation efficiency, overcame the impact of the epidemic in all sales areas, arranged the peak season of the Spring Festival in advance, the overall market sales were good, and the medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series achieved significant growth. In addition, since the change of office, we believe that the strategic objectives of the company are clear and unchanged, and we will work one after another along the 14th five year plan; Stable marketing system; The goal of nationalization remains unchanged; The direction of structural upgrading remains unchanged, contributing to the high-quality growth of the company.
Blue and white series will continue to make efforts and focus on four optimizations in the future. From January to February 2022, the blue and white series increased significantly. Blue and white is the inevitable choice for the future development of Fen Liquor and is expected to continue to develop. At the 2021 dealer conference, three indicators were defined to measure the development of Qinghua Fenjiu: Qinghua sales volume index, Qinghua 20 terminal index and Qinghua Fenjiu opinion leader guidance index. Each area was assessed and dealers were guided to focus on Qinghua. The next three years will be a major strategic development period of Fen Liquor. 2022 is very important. The company will focus on maximizing brand value, focusing on market structure optimization, product structure optimization, quality improvement and management improvement, so as to promote the high-quality development of Fen Liquor in an all-round way.
Investment advice
2022 will get off to a good start. In the medium and long term, the company has a clear goal of high-end products + national channels, and strong performance certainty. In the next 2-3 years, the operating revenue will be 30 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan in 4-5 years, with a compound annual growth rate of about 29%. Therefore, in the future, with the upgrading of product structure, prominent scale effect and optimization of management and operation level, the profit growth rate is higher than the income growth rate, and the net interest rate will continue to increase. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.514 billion, 7.158 billion and 9.281 billion, and the EPS will be 4.52 yuan, 5.87 yuan and 7.61 yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current stock price, PE will be 59 times, 46 times and 35 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
There are risks
The risk of epidemic exceeding expectations, the expansion outside the province does not meet expectations, and the macroeconomic risk
