\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 96 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) )
Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) : medical beauty leader, winning products. 1) Industry: compared with the United States, it is estimated that the medical and American penetration rate in China's compliance market has three times the space. Structurally, the injection penetration rate is mainly driven, and the margin shows a sinking / aging trend. 2) Company: the competitive advantage lies in the scarcity of products and positioning ("no one has me, others have me", enjoying an excellent competition pattern and stable ex factory price) + perfect matrix (compared with comparable peers, the company is characterized by "focus", "endogenous growth" and "strong products") + high sex price ratio (ex factory price setting gives b-end institutions sufficient profit space and C-end consumers higher cost performance). 3) High growth: from the perspective of supply side (capacity / category / Channel), the high growth in 20172019 is mainly due to the resonance between channel depth (new customer expansion of stock channels + re purchase of old customers) and breadth (number of covered institutions). The contribution of channel depth is greater than breadth in 20182020, which also confirms the competitiveness of hi's physical products. 4) High profit: the profit optimization in 20172021 is mainly due to the rate savings brought by the scale effect under the improvement of capacity utilization.
Behind the advantages: excellent system, governance + R & D + sales. 1) Governance: the core management is forward-looking (entrepreneurial experience + product design), stable (the chairman / General Manager / Sales Director / production director has more than 10 years of working experience), ESOP is deeply bound to the core backbone, and the brain drain rate is very low. 2) R & D: the product design is accurate, the market demand of card position is subdivided (direct selling system + management endowment), the investment is high (the proportion of R & D expenses and R & D personnel is higher than that of comparable peers), and the efficiency is high (the average certification cycle of each product since 2009 is less than 2 years). 3) Sales: direct selling focuses on quality (grasping high-quality customers + deepening interaction to guide product upgrading), distribution volume increase (obvious channel stratification characteristics, using dealer channel resources to grasp the long tail market), sales cost investment restraint and labor cost.
Medium term: product relay, high performance and continued profitability. From the perspective of performance, based on the revenue forecast of hi body, moistening angel and botulinum toxin products, the revenue volume of core products is expected to be RMB 1.09/18.8/27.0/36.9/49.0/6.18 billion respectively from 2021 to 2026, with a five-year compound growth rate of 42% from 2021 to 2026. From the perspective of profit, there is room for optimizing the gross profit margin in the future (the contribution of white angel and panda needle is increased, and the gross profit structure of optimized products + cost saving space still exists); With the increase of the coverage of expense side institutions, the sales rate or margin has increased to a certain extent; It is expected that the profit margin will remain 55% + until 2026 (the impact of agency botulinum toxin is still small). The performance measurement process is as follows:
1) hi body: it is estimated that the revenue volume of hi body (neck tattoo needle + panda needle) will reach 4.099 billion by 2026, with a compound growth rate of 32.1% from 2021 to 2026, accounting for nearly 25% of the market share of hyaluronic acid. ① Hi body neck tattoo needle: fully occupy the minds of consumers, and there is no competitor for compliant products; It is expected to contribute nearly half of the revenue of hi body in 2026, and the marginal pull of channel expansion will weaken in rhythm. ② Hi body panda needle: there is no strong competitive product in the compliant hyaluronic acid Market (avoiding swelling, induration and Dindal effect), which is relatively cost-effective and has sufficient production capacity; It is expected to contribute nearly half of the revenue of hi sports in 2026, and the dividend of channel expansion still exists in rhythm. ③ Hi body - Shuiguang needle: under the regulatory supplement of Shuiguang needle, hi body 2.5 and huihuo bubble needle are expected to replace class II equipment / class I equipment / makeup brands or even unqualified products.
2) yubai Angel: it is expected that China's renewable products market will be better than collagen (sufficient production capacity + maintenance time) and mainstream medical and American markets such as the United States / Brazil (product power + aesthetic difference), but lower than high-end hyaluronic acid products (pricing + indications + brand awareness). It is expected that the sales volume of China's renewable products will reach 7% - 10% of hyaluronic acid and 20% - 30% of hyaluronic acid; Yubai angel has strong product power, and its price positioning gives institutions greater profit space and consumers higher cost performance. It is expected that by 2026, the market share will reach 34%, the revenue contribution will be 1.2 billion +, the five-year compound growth rate will be 80% from 2021 to 2026, and the relay hi body will open the second growth curve.
3) botulinum toxin: high barrier, large volume and good pattern, the next blue ocean market after hyaluronic acid; It is estimated that hutox will be approved in 2024, with a revenue contribution of more than 800 million yuan by 2026, and will be in the dividend period of channel expansion from 2025 to 2026; From a long-term perspective, there is still much room for expansion in the field of Botox medicine (the performance contribution of Botox medical beauty and medical field is about 45% / 55% respectively), and the third growth curve will be opened at that time.
Long term: tamp barriers, go to the world, and the ceiling is still far away. Based on Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) own resource endowment and overseas leading experience in medical and American medicine, it is expected that the company's future strategic focus will be "self owned + cooperation" to consolidate R & D barriers; "Endogenous + extension" to consolidate product barriers; In terms of channel, the focus is still on the b-end (product + quanxuan college + product display and training experience center), and on the C-end, increase the public awareness of the brand through public welfare or charity activities; Promote the overseas commercialization of local products and the acquisition of overseas complementary investment targets.
Profit forecast and investment rating. The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 2.312 billion, RMB 3.238 billion and RMB 4.331 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 59.7%, 40.1% and 33.8% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.467 billion yuan, 2.066 billion yuan and 2.759 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.2%, 40.8% and 33.6% respectively; Based on the closing price on March 16, the corresponding dynamic PE in 2022 and 2023 are 62x and 44x respectively. In the medium term, the core product hi body / moistening Angel / Botox will continue to relay, and high growth and high profit are expected to continue. In the long run, the company's strategic focus is to consolidate R & D / product / channel barriers, expand M & A and internationalization, and open the growth ceiling. From the perspective of valuation, the company, as a pure medical American Standard of a shares, has prominent scarcity and enjoys a certain valuation premium. It is recommended to pay special attention to the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: product competition is becoming increasingly fierce; Regulatory policy changes beyond expectations; Medical risk accidents; International experience is not completely reproducible, and relevant data and materials are only for reference; Uncertain effects such as medical technology and consumption habits; The uncertainty of extension M & A and internationalization progress; New product sales were lower than expected.
