\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 157 Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) )
In 2021, the non deduction performance increased significantly, and the performance continued to improve at the beginning of 2022. The main financial data are as follows:
The company released the performance forecast. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.04 billion yuan ~ 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76.81% ~ 73.24%, mainly due to the excessive income brought by the debt restructuring and the increase of the base in 2020; Excluding the non recurring profit and loss factors, the company is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 785 million to RMB 945 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 301.99% ~ 383.92%. In 2021, the sales volume and price of coking coal increased significantly year-on-year, overcame the rising pressure of power business costs, increased both volume and price, and achieved significant growth in non deduction performance.
The company released the forecast of business performance growth. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 4.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 50% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 160 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 60%. All business segments of the company performed well and the performance continued to improve.
Coal sector: the new mine has been approved by the national development and Reform Commission, which is expected to bring profit thickening:
The company's new coal mine, haizetan coal mine, was approved by the national development and Reform Commission on February 15, 2022. The total investment of the project is 7.46 billion yuan (excluding the cost of mining rights), and the capital ratio is 30.47%. The affiliated company is Shaanxi Yihua Mining Development Co., Ltd. Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) indirectly holds 70% of its shares. Haizetan coal mine is located in Yuheng mining area, Shaanxi Province, with a construction scale of 6 million tons / year and supporting the construction of a coal preparation plant of the same scale. As of February 13, 2022, the proved reserves of haizetan coal mine are about 1.145 billion tons. The coal types are mainly long flame coal, non stick coal and weak stick coal, with an average calorific value of more than 6500 kcal. It is a new project approved and replaced by the national energy administration according to the advanced production capacity. As of February 13, 2022, the approval of the coal mine has been completed, and the subsequent formalities such as mining license will be handled. According to the preliminary calculation of the company, the haizetan coal mine is expected to realize an annual operating revenue of about 5 billion yuan, an operating cash flow of 2.5 billion yuan and a net profit of about 2 billion yuan (the estimated net profit attributable to the parent is about 1.4 billion yuan, about 1.17 ~ 1.35 times of the company's estimated net profit attributable to the parent in 2021), which is expected to bring profit thickening to the company.
It is proposed to establish a joint venture in Henan to speed up the layout of energy storage and new energy:
On March 18, 2022, the company signed a cooperation agreement with the preparatory group of Henan Branch of China Three Gorges Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Three Gorges Henan Branch"), China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) (hereinafter referred to as " China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) ). It plans to set up a joint venture in Henan. The company shares and holds no more than 40% shares. China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) is the controlling body to jointly invest in the construction of energy storage projects and other new energy projects in Henan Province. The company expects that by 2030, the total installed capacity of the joint venture's energy storage projects and other new energy projects will reach 10 million KW. Its energy storage projects include pumped storage. Under the same conditions, priority will be given to purchasing Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) the power generated by coal-fired power plants in Henan Province. According to the company's announcement, as of the end of June 2021, the company has a thermal power installed capacity of 4.0519 million kW in Henan. In the future, the joint venture's energy storage project will be linked with the company's thermal power project to meet the power demand of the energy storage project, digest the excess power when the thermal power demand is low, and improve the average annual power generation hours of the company's thermal power project. In addition, the joint venture will simultaneously carry out the construction of wind power and photovoltaic projects in Henan, speed up the transformation of the company's new energy field, and realize the goal of "sustainable development"? Scenery fire storage? Integrated layout.
Profit forecast and Valuation: combined with the company's performance forecast, we predict that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.13/19.1/2.24 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 75% / + 69% / + 17%, equivalent to EPS of 0.05/0.09/0.10 yuan / share respectively. The current share price of 1.65 yuan (March 17) corresponds to PE of 32.51/19.20/16.35 times respectively. The company's performance has continued to improve since 2022. The new mine has been approved by the national development and Reform Commission, and it is expected to realize profit thickening, Accelerate the layout of energy storage and new energy to maintain the company? Overweight? grade.
Risk tip: the risk of coal price fluctuation. According to the calculation, if everything else remains the same, if the comprehensive selling price of commercial coal of the company drops by 50 yuan / ton in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company will drop by 429 / 4.2 / 435 million yuan from 2021 to 2023 respectively; Risk that the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Risk of sustainable substitution of renewable energy; Safety production risk.
