\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Event: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) released the annual report of 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 145538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.2%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 24.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145.5%. Based on the total share capital of 3.140 billion shares, the diluted earnings per share was 7.85 yuan and the operating cash flow per share was 8.89 yuan. Among them, the operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 38.219 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 5.107 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.84%; Equivalent to single quarter eps1 63 yuan. Based on the total share capital of about 3.140 billion shares, the company distributed a cash dividend of 25 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, corresponding to the current dividend rate of 31.85%.
The sales scale of the three business segments increased significantly throughout the year, the prices of main products increased, and the sales volume is expected to increase. In 2021, the company’s polyurethane series, petrochemical series, fine chemicals and new materials series achieved revenue of 60.492 billion yuan, 61.409 billion yuan and 15.464 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 72.8%, 132.5% and 94.2% respectively. The revenue from other businesses was 18.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%; The offset between products was 10.9 billion yuan, an increase of about 3.6 billion yuan over last year. The sales volume and price of the company’s three series of main products have increased to varying degrees year-on-year: the sales volume of polyurethane series may mainly come from MDI and polyether: in February 2021, the MDI unit in Yantai Industrial Park completed the technical transformation and expansion from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / A to 1.1 million T / A, adding 500000 tons of production capacity; The MDI unit of BC company has completed technical transformation and capacity expansion, with a new capacity of 50000 tons; The polyether project will increase the production capacity by 255000 tons / year. In terms of petrochemical series, the million ton ethylene industry chain project was completed and put into operation in November 2020, and maintained full load operation in the first year of operation. It is expected to become the main incremental source. In addition, the significant increase in self trade volume is also expected to make a great contribution. For the series of fine chemicals and new materials, we analyze that the increment comes from (1) the operating rate of PC increases by 20pcts, driving the output to increase by about 42000 tons; The operating rate of PMMA increased by 10 PCTs, driving the output to increase by about 8000 tons; (2) The sales volume of ADI, waterborne resin and TPU business increased; (3) Sichuan Meishan base PBAT biodegradable polyester project and ternary cathode battery material project were successfully put into operation, which brought incremental benefits. In 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 26.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4pcts; The gross profit margin of polyurethane series, petrochemical series, fine chemicals and new materials series increased by 0.61, 9.45 and 2.32 PCTs to 35.1%, 17.1% and 21.3% respectively year-on-year.
The company still maintained a high R & D intensity, with R & D expenses of 3.168 billion yuan, an increase of 1.125 billion yuan year-on-year. The company’s R & D investment is mainly focused on the technological incubation of new business segments such as high-end chemicals, new materials and solutions, emerging materials, such as carbon neutral technology, recycling and utilization of polyurethane foam, degradable materials and key monomer, high-performance materials (nylon 12, special PC, POE, optical grade PMMA, etc.), new energy storage and battery materials, separation and purification and other R & D projects.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the company has formed three industrial clusters of polyurethane, petrochemical, fine chemicals and new materials with highly integrated industrial chain and highly integrated production. By continuing to increase technological innovation, relying on the competitive advantage of international layout and excellent operation system, the company has effectively maintained the rapid growth and development of its business. In combination with the company’s product price trend and the pace of future capacity launch, we maintain the net profit forecast of 25.5 billion and 28 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023, and introduce the net profit forecast of 32.1 billion yuan in 2023, corresponding to EPS of 8.11, 8.92 and 10.24 yuan / share from 2022 to 2024 respectively, maintaining the “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk, risk of sharp fluctuations in product and raw material prices, risk of new project progress and profit not meeting expectations
